Precious few teams can dream of posing challenge to Golden State
It almost seems too easy. There have been heavily favored NBA teams in past seasons, but nothing quite like this. Preseason forecasts suggest just skipping the regular season and going straight to the playoffs, when we’ll discover which teams will be destroyed by the Warriors.
ESPN quoted a Las Vegas oddsmaker saying, “They’re going to be the highest favorite we’ve ever had going into a season, in any sport.” An NBA scout told Sports Illustrated that he came up with an AllStar team worthy of playing the Warriors — LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo — “but even with those five, I’m not confident.”
We won’t argue the basic premise, that the Warriors are the class of the NBA and one of the most talented teams ever assembled. It will be a shock if they don’t win their third championship in four years.
But the regular season is going to be wildly compelling, thanks to a flurry of dramatic offseason moves. Several teams are capable of beating the Warriors in a regular-season game, perhaps once or twice in a playoff series.
Here we rank the most serious contenders, in order of strength: Cleveland: This might sound crazy, considering Kyrie Irving’s departure and LeBron’s wandering eye toward next summer’s free-agent market, but this team still has plenty to offer. James won’t be bothered by the relentless media questioning; he’s too focused on winning another ring. If Isaiah Thomas has fully recovered from his hip condition when he returns to action (sometime after New Year’s), the Cavs won’t be missing Irving at the point-guard position.
The key will be keeping everyone happy when Thomas does appear. Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade, a couple of Chicago-raised players who haven’t had had the chance to play together, will be vital components with some points to prove in the early season. They might not be thrilled when the offense becomes dominated by James and Thomas. But LeBron and head coach Tyronn Lue have a way of keeping chemistry issues at bay, with that eternal glance toward Golden State.
Shooting won’t be an issue with Kevin Love (now at center), J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver in the mix, with Wade dangerous from mid-range and Rose still capable of those explosive drives to the hoop. The fatal component will be defense against a Warriors team that doesn’t stop switching, screening or moving without the ball. New acquisition Jae Crowder will be a big help there, and as LeBron explains, “There’s Jae, D-Wade is a big ‘2’ guard, I’m a big small forward, D-Rose is a big point guard. We have the versatility and ability to fly around and do a few different things defensively.” In the end, though: No. Houston: This is one hell of an experiment. James Harden favors a quick tempo, he loves the three-point shot, and he’s used to controlling everything that happens on the floor. Chris Paul prefers to slow it down, shoot from mid-range and act as dictator, rarely shy of belittling teammates when they fall short of expectations. It sounds potentially combustible, but let’s see how it works before issuing condemnation. These are two proud, skilled men who want to knock off Golden State in the worst way.
For pure three-point shooting, the Rockets can showcase Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza. On defense, their blatant weakness over the years, they have long-armed wings P.J. Tucker, Luc Mbah a Moute, Ariza and Troy Williams. They can play small, or look to dominate underneath with centers Clint Capela and Nene. It all adds up to a titanic challenge for creative head coach Mike D’Antoni, one he undoubtedly savors.
Keep in mind: Paul can go right back on the free-agent market next summer if he can’t coexist with Harden. Surely, Paul will wait for the playoffs before he makes a clear decision on anything — and the Rockets have to wonder about a long-term deal that would pay him some $40 million per season into his late 30s. San Antonio: So much can go wrong here. The Spurs seem frightfully old with Pau Gasol, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili still quite relevant, Rudy Gay approaching the end of his prime and LaMarcus Aldridge invariably vulnerable to unsightly indifference. (Aldridge drove head coach Gregg Popovich nuts with his terrible play against the Warriors in last season’s conference finals, and the two had a sit-down this summer. Adridge has pledged to stay motivated, even when things don’t go his way.)
The key, as always, will be Popovich’s strategical genius. It was delightful to watch him stare down prevailing trends last season: going big when teams went small, featuring mid-range shots when the rest of the league (save Golden State) pathetically dismissed the idea, calling for post-up plays when necessary, and crafting a defense that led the league in overall efficiency. There’s a sound, time-tested system in place in San Antonio, and Popovich still has the pieces — led by the wondrous Leonard — to make it work.
How it could all go wrong: Leonard, occasionally bothered by a quadriceps injury last season, will miss at least the opener with the same ailment. Oklahoma City: Lasting image from Russell Westbrook’s MVP season: this magnificent athlete driving all-out to the hoop with a ferocity and effectiveness not seen beyond the realm of Michael Jordan. It was thrilling to watch, but add this to the image: Westbrook getting denied — that does happen sometimes — and instead of trying to bully his way through disaster, he kicks it out to Paul George or Carmelo Anthony. It’s a whole new world this season in OKC.
There’s potential for stifling defense with George, rugged center Steven Adams, lockdown guard Andre Roberson and Westbrook, if he sets his mind to it. You just wonder how it all fits with Anthony part of the scene. Give him credit for accepting a major cultural shift — bustling New York City to quiet Oklahoma City — but this is a man who has thrived on isolation plays throughout his life. For that matter, so have Westbrook and George.
Put it this way: Thunder down a point, 18 seconds to go. George, shockingly, is a career 0-for-14 on go-ahead shots in the final 20 seconds. Westbrook is a bad bet in the clutch if he’s shooting from deep. And if that shot goes to Carmelo, are the other two men a bit miffed?
Worth noting: In Jack McCallum’s excellent new book, “Golden Days,” the Warriors’ approach to Westbrook is summed up this way:
He’s a great indiviual talent who will eventually sabotage the game with his ill-timed three-pointers and “kamikaze” drives. We don’t fear him. His stats, particularly on rebounding, are empty and bloated.
“Nobody would say it aloud,” McCallum writes, “but that’s what the team as a whole believed.” Boston: Thomas can’t seem to figure out the trade that sent him to Cleveland. “It still doesn’t make any sense,” he told SI.com. “It’s a trade you make in ‘NBA 2K,’ not a trade you make in real life.”
Well, actually, it made a lot of sense. Thomas, with hip problems that could resurface and end his career, is due for a $200 million payday at age 29 next summer. He gave his heart and soul to the Celtics in times of tragedy (the death of his sister), but Irving is a younger, superior point guard in terms of pure talent. People seem to be rooting against Irving, who so rudely left Cleveland in search of personal glory, but that’s not the case here. The Eastern Conference needs a vibrant, exciting Boston team to make a run at Cleveland, and Irving definitely can lead the way.
What must happen: Jaylen Brown continues his ascent, and rookie Jayson Tatum proves he was a better draftday choice than Markelle Fultz. Marcus Smart becomes more of a factor on the offensive end. The rebounding improves (Marcus Morris won’t make anyone forget Crowder). And Gordon Hayward, a very smart acquisition on the free-agent market, fits smoothly into an Irving-led offense.