How to play role of Oscar expert
There is something oddly surreal about the run-up to the Academy Awards ceremony on March 4. Movie blogs and websites clog up the Internet with predictions of actors and films likely to score Oscar nominations. Accompanying these prognostications are charts and graphs indicating fluctuations in a potential nominee’s chances — not unlike those used by an economist to explain the stock market’s vicissitudes.
These rumblings stir up interest in the awards season, which officially begins Dec. 11 with the announcement of the Golden Globe nominations, followed on Jan. 23 when a list of Oscar nominees is read.
But there is little evidence this forecast frenzy has any real impact on box office results. To the contrary, odds are that people seeking the lowdown on sites like GoldDerby, IndieWire or Awards Watch, and in newspapers and magazines, will not rush out to see the front-runners — at least not in a conventional movie house. With box office figures expected to hit a 25-year low in 2017, audiences probably will wait to stream Oscar contenders into the coziness of their living room months, even years, after the Academy Awards.
So why make a protracted fuss over who will be nominated? A possible explanation is that it’s a holdover from Hollywood’s glamour years when movie stars like Elizabeth Taylor and Gary Cooper dominated the Oscar ceremony.
No longer do stars or films bring us together in this dramatic way. But Oscar endures — a golden memento to remind us of a golden time. For those desiring to sound knowledgeable about the Oscar race without stepping into a darkened theater, here are seven talking points sure to impress:
Not her (or him) again
Accepting her third statuette, Meryl Streep used these words to acknowledge that people might be tired of seeing her in the winner’s circle. She’s mentioned for another nomination — her 21st since 1979 — as Washington Post publisher Katharine Graham in “The Post.” A win would mean Streep ties with Katharine Hepburn as the only actor or actress to take home four Academy Awards. It would really be a historic evening if Daniel Day-Lewis won for playing a 1950s London couturier in “Phantom Thread.” That would also make four Oscars for him, a proper send-off for an actor who claims to be retiring.
Everybody loves Tom — or do they?
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences hasn’t shown Tom Hanks much love since his back-toback Oscars for “Philadephia” and “Forrest Gump” almost 25 years ago. There have been no nominations since 2001 despite numerous deserving performances, including his recent effort in “Sully.” Now his name is popping up on lists of potential 2018 nominees for his role as newspaper editor Ben Bradlee in “The Post.” If Hanks comes up short again, you have to wonder if professional jealously is a factor. Besides having his pick of movie parts, Hanks has become an extremely successful producer and directs and writes for the screen. To top matters off, his book of short stories, “Uncommon Type,” was just pub-
lished. Steve Martin may have jokingly hit on some real sentiment in Hollywood when he said in a review, “Turns out Tom is also a wise and hilarious writer — damn it!”
The mother of them all
Actresses have been heard to grouse about being stuck in the role of mothers who exist only in relationship to their family. But this year playing a mother has been infinitely more rewarding, reflected in big performances in this traditional role. Almost certain Oscar nods will go to Laurie Metcalf as a nagging but deeply caring mother in “Lady Bird”; Allison Janney as Tonya Harding’s abusive mom in “I, Tonya”; Holly Hunter as the frantic mother of a sick child in “The Big Sick”; and Frances McDormand as a vengeful woman attempting to track down her daughter’s murderer in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Mary J. Blige and Carey Mulligan might be nominated for playing tenant farmers trying to improve the lot of their children in “Mudbound.” Finally, there is Melissa Leo as the Mother Superior in “Novitiate,” whose vestments can’t contain the rage she feels at changes brought about by Vatican II.
Long overdue
Annette Bening may have the dubious distinction of losing the best actress Oscar twice to the same person — Hilary Swank beat her in 1999 and 2004. Swank has no movie in contention this year, so maybe Bening finally will hear her name called on Oscar night after four tries. She certainly deserves it for her kinetic portrayal of sultry 1950s movie star Gloria Grahame in “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool,” aided by an eerie physical resemblance to her subject. A good omen: Grahame won for “The Bad and the Beautiful.” Sam Rockwell has never received an Oscar nod despite leaving memorable impressions in a number of roles. He is high on most prediction lists for playing an unhinged assistant chief of police in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Rockwell’s competition is likely to be another Oscar-less actor with a long career: Willem Dafoe as a kindly hotel manager in “The Florida Project.”
It’s a flop: Does that mean an Oscar slight?
Oscar Isaac stops the show in “Suburbicon” when he appears as a slick insurance-claims investigator checking on a fishy murder claim. Although his performance is subtle and hilarious, it is unlikely to show up on many prediction lists. The reason: The movie was creamed by critics and tanked at the box office. The same is true for Michelle Pfeiffer, who is hypnotic as a house guest from hell in the recent flop “Mother!” She startles with her bitchy comments and disruptive movements around the home of a cult poet idolized by her husband. Like Isaac, she wills the movie alive. Surely these two deserve some respect at Oscar time. Left: Daniel Day-Lewis in “Phantom Thread.” Center: Holly Hunter, Ray Romano (center), Kumail Nanjiani in “The Big Sick.” Above: Michelle Pfeiffer and Ed Harris in “Mother!”
Comfortably or uncomfortably out front?
Even in a season when every other actor seems to have suited up as Winston Churchill, Gary Oldman’s performance as the British Bulldog in “Darkest Hour” has awed movie critics and festival audiences alike. But it is not always an advantage to be way ahead of the pack so far in advance of nominations. It simply provides aspiring challengers more time to compete. At a screening of his movie in San Francisco, Oldman said that far from worrying about competition, “I welcome it. I love good acting.” Churchill couldn’t have put it more diplomatically.