Betting line favors Patriots
The New England Patriots have the mystique of a dynasty — they’ve appeared in eight Super Bowls during the past 21 years and won five, but they’ve never prevailed by more than 6 points. And the 6-point margin was last year over the Atlanta Falcons in a game that went to overtime.
For this year’s Super Bowl on Sunday, Feb. 4, the Patriots, who looked vulnerable in their narrow AFC title win, are 4.5point favorites at most sports books over the Philadelphia Eagles, led by backup quarterback Nick Foles.
At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the Patriots opened as 5.5-point favorites on Jan. 20. Ten days later, after big money was wagered on the Eagles, the Patriots were down to 4-point favorites, said Jay Kornegay, who directs the sports book there. Philadelphia’s loyal fans are “well represented on the West Coast and have been showing up in droves.”
The total handle (amount of money bet) is a virtual lock to exceed last year’s record of $138.4 million bet on the game in Nevada, he said. Part of the increase is due to more in-game wagering on mobile devices.
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill, which runs about 100 sports books in Nevada, said some bettors “are tired of seeing the Patriots win” and thus eager to bet against them. The big questions are: “Can Foles handle the pressure, and can Philadelphia’s defense slow down (New England QB Tom) Brady and Co.?”
The Patriots appear “beatable, but they know how to win,” said Bogdanovich, who added that head coach Bill Belichick “makes the right move, and Brady makes the right play.”
About 60 percent of wagers are on proposition bets, such as who’ll be named most valuable player, Kornegay said. Brady is the favorite to win MVP at 4 to 5 (to win $40 you need to bet $50), followed by Foles at 13 to 4, and Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski at 17 to 2.
Online betting sites can offer more props than Nevada casinos, which have to stick to onfield action with very few exceptions such as MVP. (For example, a prop on Bovada.lv lets you bet on whether it’ll take Pink over or under 2 minutes to sing the national anthem.)
For game props, you can bet on whether a quarterback other than Brady or Foles will take a snap (Yes +110, No -150). You can bet on which will be the highestscoring quarter, which team will score the first touchdown, and the total number of TDs scored in the game (over/under is 5.5).
For total points scored, the over/under is 48. CBS Sports ran a computer simulation and reported the most likely result is Patriots 24, Eagles 21, which points to betting on the under and on the Eagles against the spread.
But, of course, football is unpredictable. When the Patriots were down by 25 points in last year’s Super Bowl, the live odds that they’d win climbed to 11 to 1. Just about everyone counted them out — and just about everyone was wrong.