Democrats need to narrow field, craft message
Now that the filing deadline has passed for most congressional races in California, the field is taking shape for the June 5 primary. But for Democrats, who are targeting seven Republican-held districts they say are key to retaking the House, the deadline failed to answer two big questions:
What’s the party’s message beyond, “I’m more anti-President Trump than you”?
And, perhaps more important: How many of the candidates are going to drop out? Because if some don’t withdraw soon, their sheer number means Democratic candidates will be competing against one another instead of against Republicans.
The answers to these questions will determine whether the Democratic Party has a credible chance of winning enough California districts to help gain the 24 seats it needs to flip the House.
First, according to some political veterans, their message needs to be one that isn’t just a pronoun, a verb and “Trump.”
“The Democrats don’t have one and that’s part of the problem,” said Darry Sragow, a longtime Democratic strategist who is now the publisher of
the nonpartisan California Target Book, which analyzes congressional and legislative races across the state. “There is no coherent, appealing message.”
That lack of an overarching theme may lead to Democratic candidates being left on their own when it comes to crafting campaign messages.
Because “the national party has failed to advance an agenda that says, ‘We stand for X, Y and Z,’ we have to be very surgical about it,” said Dave Jacobson, a Democratic strategist who is running a dozen congressional and statewide California campaigns. “Every race is different.”
And even though Millennial voters — who are a key piece of the Democrats’ strategy — may be overwhelmingly opposed to the president’s policies, “we know that you can’t just say, ‘Trump sucks,’ ” said Ben Wessel, deputy political director of NextGen America, the San Francisco organization funded by billionaire San Francisco activist Tom Steyer. NextGen is spending $3.5 million to turn out voters under 35 in the targeted congressional districts.
“That can be the hook, but you’ve got to put some meat on it and say, ‘Trump sucks — on the environment.’ And here are his lackeys in Congress that support him,” Wessel said.
Over the past past year, NextGen has surveyed roughly 15,000 voters younger than 35 in the targeted districts. Their top concern is the rising cost of higher education.
Immigration reform — particularly protection for “Dreamers,” who are in the United States illegally after coming here as children — is second. Surveys show it is of particular concern in the Democratictargeted district of Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Turlock (Stanislaus County), where 40 percent of the residents and 28 percent of the registered voters are Latino.
Some Democrats believe they should concentrate on local issues instead of riffing off the latest Washington scandal. For example, voters in Denham’s district are concerned about homelessness, according to focus groups and voter surveys, said Katie Merrill, a veteran Democratic strategist who is advising Fight Back California, a political action committee focused on the seven key congressional races. Five of those districts are in Southern California and two are in the Central Valley, and all of them went for Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016.
“Don’t talk about Trump. Don’t talk about Russia,” Merrill said. “Talk about what you’re going to do to bring down the cost of housing.”
In the targeted Southern California districts currently held by Rep. Dana Rohrabacher , R-Costa Mesa (Orange County), and Rep. Darrell Issa, RVista (San Diego County), who is not seeking re-election, internal polls show that concern about environmental issues — particularly since the Trump administration has proposed loosening rules on offshore drilling — is one of the few that cuts across party lines.
Democrats are traditionally opposed to drilling off the coast of California, but voters may not hear them talking about that and other local issues if there are too many of them talking.
In several districts, Democrats have what state party Chairman Eric Bauman calls “an overpopulation problem” — too many candidates. Trump’s election inspired many Democrats to run for Congress — and many of them are well-funded, unlike first-time candidates of the past. With a lot of money, they can remain in the race even if they’re not gaining traction with voters.
And polls commissioned by Merrill’s group show that voters aren’t able to distinguish among the glut of Democrats. That could be an issue in a primary election, in which the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of party.
“We are facing a situation in three of these seven districts that Democrats might get shut out of the election,” Merrill said. “All of these Democrats got into this because they wanted to win back these seats so they could be a Democratic check on Trump. But the ones that didn’t get the (state) party endorsement (last month) and aren’t raising money need to take hard look at continuing. We need to thin the herd.”
Merrill is concerned about the Orange County district represented by Rep. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton, who is retiring. Two former Republican office holders — former Assemblywoman Young Kim, R-Fullerton, and former state Sen. Bob Huff, R-Diamond Bar (Los Angeles County) — are leading in a poll released Friday by Fight Back. Behind them is a demolition derby of nearly a dozen Democrats.
When Fight Back included fewer Democratic candidates in its survey, the Democrats had a much better chance at finishing in the top two spots.
Polls show a similar dynamic in the race for Rohrabacher’s seat. Democrats are concerned because Scott Baugh, the former Republican Assembly leader and ex-chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, has jumped into the race.
According to the Fight Back poll, Baugh is even with the top two Democrats in the race, “once again raising the scenario of a Dem shutout in the general” election, Merrill said.
The challenge now for those who want to flip Republican seats is persuading some Democrats to step aside. It isn’t an easy conversation to have with someone who may have raised several hundred thousand dollars for a campaign.
Just ask Bauman, the party chairman.
“What I typically tell them is ‘There’s an opportunity before us that’s really bigger and more important than all of us,’ ” Bauman said. “If your real concern, if your real interest is in helping ensure that we have a check on Donald Trump, then look closely at your campaign. Look closely at your resources. Then ask yourself: ‘Do I honestly have a shot?’ ”