Don’t be surprised by trade down from No. 9 in deep draft
In 2017, the 49ers traded their first draft pick to a team that needed a quarterback and still selected a player they coveted after moving down.
A year later, they very well could do it again.
The 49ers will enter the first round Thursday night boasting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and the No. 9 pick in a draft in which at least four quarterbacks are expected to be selected early.
It’s possible one of those QBs will be on the board when the 49ers are on the clock. And logic — and general manager John Lynch’s answers to reporters Monday — suggests the 49ers are ready to move down again.
In 2017, each of the three QBs selected among the first 12 picks — Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson — was drafted after a team traded up to grab him.
“There are four quarterbacks up at the top and that always changes things,” Lynch said. “So I think this thing could break in a ton of different directions. I think what’s important for us then, being at No. 9, you don’t just fall in love with one player and say, ‘Hey, that’s the guy.’ You better have multiple answers because multiple things could happen in terms of how this draft breaks.”
Translation: Hey, NFL, we are more than ready to trade down.
Last year, the 49ers netted two third-round picks and a fourth-round pick from the Bears to move just one spot, from No. 2 to No. 3, at which they selected defensive tackle Solomon Thomas.
A year later, they have one top-50 pick (their first five are No. 9, 59, 70, 74 and 128) and their clear roster needs include edge rusher, inside linebacker, cornerback and offensive lineman.
On Monday, Lynch provided other details that pointed to a trade-down scenario. Among them: The 49ers have Pro Bowl grades on 12 players, and firstround grades on about 30 players in a “deep draft” that Lynch said many in the league think could produce about 100 starters. In other words, the 49ers could trade down a few spots, perhaps with a QB-needy team such as the Dolphins (No. 11) or Bills (No. 12), and still select a player they view as a future Pro Bowler while accumulating top-100 picks that could become starters.
When it was jokingly noted — in light of those 12 Pro Bowl grades — that the 49ers may not trade down below No. 12, Lynch laughed: “Not (No.) 13,” he said.
As all GMs do before the draft, Lynch didn’t rule out any scenarios, but his answer seemed telling when asked about possibly trading up from No. 9. In response, he quickly began talking about trading down.
“We could” trade up, he said. “I do think, though, that not needing a quarterback and all those quarterbacks likely being up there, it’s going to push some really good football players (down) there. And that’s where I’m talking about, you can’t fall in love with one guy because who knows how it’s going to break after that?”
If they stand pat, or move down a few spots, the 49ers could land one among many players who are arguably the best at their position: Georgia inside linebacker Roquan Smith, Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward, Florida State safety Derwin James, Boston College edge rusher Harold Landry or Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick, who could play cornerback or safety.
Given the 49ers’ lack of passrush, which is perhaps their biggest weakness, Harold and Texas-San Antonio’s Marcus Davenport are logical targets, particularly in a trade-down scenario.
Neither is viewed as a top-10 pick, but each is a slam-dunk first-rounder in a draft that has been deemed weak when it comes to pass rushers.
Lynch has noted the difficulty of signing free-agent pass rushers. Like quarterbacks, they play a premium position and teams keep the best from reaching the open market.
Given the 49ers’ obvious need — and the lack of ways to address it — Lynch was asked if it was fair to assume one of his early picks would be used on an edge rusher.
“You can assume a lot of things,” Lynch said. “I think everyone’s looking for that position. I think the most simplistic philosophy on how you really improve a team, or what you want out of a team in terms of priorities, is if you can find a quarterback and then find the guys to knock them down. (Then) you’re doing pretty well. That’s a great place to start. We’re certainly looking for that.”