From fear to hope in Koreas
North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, pulled off a stunning feat of diplomacy this week. Not only did he step across the border of his isolated, impoverished nation into its historic enemy, South Korea — Kim is the first North Korean leader to do so — but he reportedly charmed South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in.
The two leaders shook hands, walked together, and even planted a tree before signing a joint statement pledging to work toward a “common goal” of denuclearization. The three-page Panmunjom Declaration, named after the village the leaders visited, sets the stage for Kim to meet with President Trump this summer.
Trump has hailed the historic summit by tweeting, “KOREAN WAR TO END!” and floating the idea that he should win the Nobel Peace Prize.
While the outcome of this summit is good news indeed — Kim was threatening to
strike Moon’s residence with missiles in 2016 — the truth is considerably more complicated.
Kim made major advances in developing and testing nuclear weapons last year, and despite this week’s pledge, few experts believe he will genuinely hand over the country’s arsenal. After watching violent regime change in Libya and Iraq — countries without nuclear deterrents — Kim believes that North Korea would be foolish to make the same mistake.
But he doesn’t seem to want a headlong rush into war, either. That’s where his diplomacy with South Korea — and soon, his diplomacy with China and the United States — gets interesting.
By signing this pledge for denuclearization, Kim seems to be betting that he’ll be able to avert the threat of war, that future pledge details won’t be fully implemented and, in the meantime, his country may be able to wiggle out of some sanctions.
It’s an audacious bet, and it just might work.
Both South Korea and China are determined to lower the global temperature on potential war with Kim. In exchange for some North Korean concessions — like a halt to nuclear testing — these countries could very well ease sanctions.
As for Trump, it’s not hard to see how the savvy Kim could outmaneuver him. At their upcoming summit, Kim could offer him the opportunity to present himself as a historic peacemaker by signing another denuclearization declaration. That’s an opportunity that will certainly appeal to Trump’s ego.
All of this is good news, despite the fact that North Korea remains unlikely to abandon its nuclear program. The summit takes the world further away from a dangerous and destabilizing war.