Trump’s risky Korea initiative
Americans proudly think of their history as a long one, 242 years is indeed impressive by North American standards.
And then there’s northeast Asia, specifically the Korean peninsula, where a tumultuous tribal history was going on for 20 centuries — before Christ. The fascinating modern historic events there now were instigated by an unorthodox president who may be about to accomplish what orthodox leaders never could. These times are a mere finger-snap in Korea’s timeline, but potentially as transformative long-term as the Berlin Wall’s fall in 1989.
That divisive communist structure accomplished nothing in reality. It stood for but 28 years, compared to the most recent division of the Asian peninsula into North and South Korea 65 years ago after a bloody, exhausting three-year war that accomplished nothing but the deaths of some 5 million people.
The armistice boundary between the two Koreas ended where it started, the 38th parallel just north of Seoul. The 2mile-wide misnamed demilitarized zone is the world’s most heavily mined and targeted territory, and a stale symbol of the obduracy of the Cold War.
For over a quarter-century successive U.S. presidents tried patiently and persistently to persuade three successive ruling Kims to forsake their nuclear weapons program.
The incentives to Pyongyang’s stricken economy were gladly accepted. But inspectors were soon barred from verification rounds. Satellite images revealed rampant cheating. And in recent years the North launched ICBM tests over Japan far out into the Pacific.
Along comes an impulsive President Trump. He announced an end to the “era of strategic patience.” He organized an international coalition, including China, to stricken the North’s economy more with tightening sanctions. He expressed a preference for diplomacy, saying he’d meet with Kim, a coveted concession to the isolated Hermit Kingdom.
To demonstrate credible strength, Trump also sent stealth bombers, vowing massive retaliation if the North attacked the U.S. or allies. He derided the current Exalted Leader as little “Rocket Man.”
But suddenly this winter, Kim meets with Seoul emissaries to send an invitation to Trump, who stuns everyone by accepting. Kim unilaterally suspends his missile and nuclear tests, adding he no longer objects to joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises.
South Korea’s National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong said Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un will meet this month. Seoul has already publicized that North Korea offered talks with the United States on denuclearization.
Kim also suggests meeting South Korea’s president to talk denuclearization of the peninsula (U.S. nukes left in 1991) and Korean reunification, an emotional string that resonates in every Korean’s heart, though it hasn’t occurred for about 1,500 years. Last week, the portly Kim strolled alone across the DMZ to shake Moon Jae-in’s hand, embrace and discuss officially ending the war.
Now, let’s be candid: Nothing has actually changed yet, save for tone and suspending missile launches, both of which could change this afternoon. Kim is never going to give up his nuclear program.
Backed by layers of secret police reporting on each other, Kim is a duplicitous, ruthless, brutal dictator.
Dealmaker Trump can’t keep himself from describing the historic nature of meeting Kim in coming weeks. This time though, Trump’s right. The meeting alone is unprecedented.
Trump’s initiative is indeed risky. The same folks who knew he could never be elected are sure he’ll fail here, too.
Indeed, much could go wrong to scuttle talks and any deal before, during or after.
Now, Trump should stop the bluster about preconditions. That could be a deal-breaker over face.
And for a change, the president needs caution and precision in word choice and gestures. There is, for instance, real danger in body language (nodding can simply mean, I hear you, not I agree).
And simultaneous translating is quite tricky between the specifics prized in English and the vague, often intentionally incomprehensible generalities that are laced through Asian languages to avoid offense.
North Korea’s founder and Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, launched his surprise invasion of the South in 1950 because he interpreted the translation of a Truman administration statement to mean the Korean Peninsula was outside postwar U.S. interests.
And here we are 68 years later still dealing with it.