The problem with ‘launch angle’ homers
It sounds so easy, and a lot of players make it so. Baseball’s “launch angle” craze is largely responsible for the dramatic surge in home runs, and several hitters have changed their approach to join the party. Just put a natural uppercut on your swing, look to drive the ball high and far, and take a leisurely stroll around the bases.
The Giants’ Mac Williamson provides an excellent example of a radically redesigned swing. His model is the Dodgers’ Justin Turner (currently injured), who turned himself into one of the game’s most feared hitters. But is it really that simple?
Tim Flannery, the former Giants coach and one of the smartest baseball minds you’ll ever run across, has a few questions on the subject.
“I’ve been told by the analytics people that a 27 percent launch angle with exit velocity at a certain speed is a home run,” Flannery said recently. “So how do you get that launch angle if the pitcher is throwing a 95-mph power sinker down and away?”
Flannery would also like to know:
“What if the pitcher throws a fastball at the very top of the strike zone, and now the only way you can hit it is at a higher launch angle? Does it result in a pop-up?
“What if you have the perfect launch angle of 27 percent and the pitcher throws you 88 mph instead of the 92 you had calculated and it results in a soft flyball to the warning track? What if you need a line drive up the middle or a grounder in a hole to win the game? Does any of that get calculated into the equation?
“I hate to be a buzz-kill,” Flannery said, “but I need these questions answered before I can buy in. I love a lot of the new metrics, like WAR and BABIP, but after playing and coaching in the big leagues 26 years, I’m not sure you can calculate all this information and hit a Madison Bumgarner slider with teeth headed to bite your back foot.”
And in closing, Flannery quotes the great Jimmy Buffett: “Don’t try to describe the ocean if you’ve never seen it.”
A legend moves on
Ichiro was a man who never bothered with launch-angle theories, making him impossible to defend, and the baseball world is toasting his career. He tailored his swing to the situation, calling up offfield liners, dead-pull shots, bunts, even home runs (117 in his MLB career) to fit the circumstance. So much to remember: Hitting .372 with a record 262 hits in 2004, his inside-the-park home run in the 2007 All-Star Game at AT&T Park, that epic throw from right field against the A’s, cutting down Terrence Long at third, and always the dignified presence of royalty . . . With shortstop Cory Seager out for the year, could the Dodgers trade for Manny Machado, a potential free agent who won’t be re-signing with Baltimore? It won’t be easy. Taking on Machado’s contract would put the Dodgers beyond the luxury-tax threshold, something they have worked ardently to avoid. And they probably don’t have the prospects to make it work, given that promising pitcher Walker Buehler will be needed in that rotation . . . You’ll be hearing a lot about manager Gabe Kapler when the Giants visit Philadelphia next week. In short, he’s a new-age thinker who relies heavily on analytics — sometimes to the extreme. After a disastrous opening week in which he summoned a relief pitcher who hadn’t warmed up (among other dubious moves), Kapler was roundly booed at the Phillies’ home opener. But he listens to his players, some of whom had thoughts of mutiny. And it was an ex-A’s pitcher, Pat Neshek, who met with Kapler for two hours at a hotel bar and explained, in essence, “Analytics are fine, but trust your eyes, too — and follow your instincts.” Kapler went with more conventional methods, the team went on a hot streak, and a fine story is developing.
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