Justify, Magnum Moon chase history
Justify has decisively won all three of his career races — including the Santa Anita Derby — and is trained by fourtime Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert.
Magnum Moon has won all four of his career races — including the Arkansas Derby — and is trained by twotime Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher.
Justify is the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, and Magnum Moon is the 6-1 third choice despite the fact that neither colt raced as a 2-year-old.
One of them might end one of the longest droughts in American sports history: No 3year-old has won the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882.
“It’s lasted long enough that there has to be something to it,” Pletcher said. “Inexperience could be it. Experience might help when dealing with adversity. But I feel strongly that at some point, somebody is going to reverse the curse. Obviously, Justify is tremendously talented and Magnum Moon as well. When the right horse comes along, it will happen.”
The theory is that a horse needs that 2-yearold seasoning to handle the 1¼ miles of the Kentucky Derby — farther than any participant has run — and the pressure of negotiating through a field of 20.
“The Apollo thing comes up a lot but back in the day, people ran their horses much earlier,” Baffert said. “We used to run races for 2-year-olds really early, but the game has changed.”
Baffert nearly pulled off the feat with Bodemeister, who led for all but the final few yards of the 2012 Kentucky Derby before finishing second to I’ll Have Another. Curlin finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby while encountering a lot of traffic trouble, and then won the Preakness and Breeders’ Cup Classic en route to the first of his two Horse of the Year awards.
“I think it’s just something
to add to the conversation,” Baffert said. “It doesn’t even enter my mind. I’d rather have a really talented horse over a horse that’s seasoned that’s just on par with the rest of them.”
In Justify’s favor is the betting favorite having won the past five Kentucky Derbys. Additionally — and working in Magnum Moon’s favor, too — the past six winners went into the Derby undefeated in their 3year-old races.
The 5-1 second choice is Mendelssohn, a grass horse from Europe who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf as a 2-yearold and the UAE Derby by an astounding 18½ lengths in his first race on dirt.
Still, none of the 13 previous UAE Derby participants finished better than fifth in the Kentucky Derby.
Other trends bode poorly for horses from the Louisiana Derby, Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes.
Louisiana Derby horses are 2-for-74 in the Kentucky Derby and only one — Grindstone in 1996 — ran his final prep in that race. Noble Indy, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack and Bravazo ran 1-2-3-8 in this year’s Louisiana Derby.
Since Funny Cide and Empire Maker finished 1-3 in the 2003 Kentucky Derby, none of the 31 horses from the Wood Memorial has finished better than fourth. Vino Rosso, Enticed and Firenze Fire ran 1-2-4 in the Wood.
The 36 horses from the Blue Grass Stakes have managed only two third-place finishes in the Kentucky Derby since Street Sense won it in 2007. Good Magic, Flameaway and Free Drop Billy ran 1-2-4 in the Blue Grass.