Belmont distance, fatigue to test Justify
Justify shows something new each race. In the Kentucky Derby, he showed he could run in mud in a crowded field. In the Preakness, he withstood the challenge of a top rival pressing him early and held off others before the finish line.
Next, he’ll need to show he can win the grueling 1½-mile Belmont Stakes in New York on June 9. If he does that, Justify will become horse racing’s second Triple Crown winner in four years.
“If you’re a superior horse, you can do it,” trainer Bob Baffert said Sunday. “I’ve seen horses go a mile and a half and they never won again. It’s a weird, quirky race, but I don’t see why he wouldn’t handle it.”
Had the Preakness been a tenth of a mile longer, a hardcharging Bravazo might have passed Justify and ended the Triple Crown bid Saturday. Bravazo will go to the Belmont, where Justify will have plenty of familiar challenges — and a few fresh ones — standing in the way of becoming the 13th horse to win the Triple Crown.
In addition to Bravazo, Kentucky Derby horses Hofburg, Vino Rosso and Free Drop Billy and Preakness horse Tenfold are among those likely to challenge Justify in what’s considered the most difficult race on the Triple Crown trail.
Bravazo is “a tough little horse, and I think his pedigree will let him run that far,” trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. “So, we’ll take him on and see what happens.”
Justify’s convincing Derby win scared a few opposing owners and trainers away from the Preakness. Given the fatigue of difficult races two weeks apart, they could see Justify as beatable at the Belmont.
Baffert, who had near-misses with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem before American Pharoah broke a 37-year Triple Crown drought in 2015, said Justify is built to power through fatigue caused by running on the slop twice against high-caliber competition.
“You do hate to keep running on these wet tracks because it does take a little bit out of them,” Baffert said before Justify was flown to Louisville, Ky., for some rest and training. “It can be tough. It’s not as tough on him because he’s a big horse. He can handle it. He was blowing pretty good, he got a good blow out of (the Preakness), but he wasn’t as tired as we thought he was.”
Twelve of the past 13 times the horse who won the Derby and Preakness lost the Belmont. It’s the test of a champion for a reason, and Justify’s co-owner Elliott Walden is hoping for the best.
“Those things tend to happen the way they’re supposed to happen,” Walden said. “If Justify is meant to do it, it’ll happen. And if not, it just won’t.”