Green in line for max deal?
Top dollar no slam dunk considering age, size, injuries
At 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, Draymond Green is an undersized power forward who rebounds and blocks shots like a center, defends all five positions like a versatile wing, facilitates like a point guard and barks orders like a head coach.
That unique combination leaves no fair comparisons for Green. There have been players who possess some of his skills, but no one who boasts his full package.
Making Green even more of an outlier is that, unlike almost every other transcendent player pushing the limits of his prime, Green doesn’t necessarily warrant a maximum contract. When Green becomes an unrestricted free agent in 19 months, the Warriors — on track for easily the biggest payroll in NBA history — must decide whether they want to pay top dollar for a 30-year-old with nagging injuries.
Before Golden State extends
an offer, it will pore over analytics, medical information and the careers of similar players to gauge just how wise a long-term investment in Green would be, given that the team is already deep into the luxury tax. There is seemingly no room for sentimentality when making a decision that could play a big factor in determining how long this dynasty lasts.
Though Green has been a driving force in the Warriors’ three championship runs in the past four years, his rugged, all-out playing style raises questions about his durability. His ailments last season included right shoulder soreness, a swollen elbow, knee soreness and a bruised pelvis. Because of a sprained right toe and a one-game suspension, Green has missed 14 of a possible 28 games this season.
“We’re not worried about Draymond’s durability,” Golden State head coach Steve Kerr said last month. “He’s missed time because he happened to sprain his toe. That happens. It doesn’t mean anything more than that.”
The issue isn’t whether the physical toll of Green’s playing style will hurt his production in the near term. At 28, he is adept at managing minor injuries in the regular season to make sure he is at his best for the playoffs. Green meets regularly with a nutritionist, spends off days relaxing with family and rarely protests when Kerr asks him to take a game off.
But, as Green nears 30, the Warriors must project whether he is poised for a rapid dip in production. It doesn’t help
“The thing is, it’s really hard to predict how cumulative wear and tear is going to affect a player down the road. Every player is different.” Dr. Brian Schultz, sports-medicine specialist at Cedars-Sinai Kerlan-Jobe Institute
that there have been so few players similar to him. Though Dennis Rodman might be the most reasonable comparison to Green because of their size, defensive versatility and volatile nature, Rodman didn’t have near the offensive responsibilities that Green shoulders.
Players like Green who are undersized for their position tend to age worse than their taller peers.
According to a recent ESPN study, shorter players experience a quicker decline in their early 30s. For example, longtime Green idol Ben Wallace — a 6-foot-9 center and fourtime Defensive Player of the Year — saw his production nosedive at age 33.
If Green signed a designated veteran max contract in July 2020, he’d be making around $50 million at 35. As essential as he has been to this gilded age of Warriors basketball — and one could argue that no one has been more crucial — that is a steep price for a team that will have a payroll probably in the $300 million range before opening next season.
“The thing is, it’s really hard to predict how cumulative wear and tear is going to affect a player down the road,” said Dr. Brian Schultz, a sports-medicine specialist at Cedars-Sinai Kerlan-Jobe Institute in Los Angeles. “Every player is different. Teams just have to do the best they can with the resources they have available to them.”
If Green wins Defensive Player of the Year or All-NBA honors this season, he will be eligible for a super-max contract in 2020 of five years, $226 million. Odds are that, regardless of whether he qualifies for super-max money, he’ll make his case to Golden State for at least a max-level deal.
After sacrificing money in 2015 to help the Warriors acquire Kevin Durant, Green reportedly isn’t interested in taking another pay cut. That there almost certainly will be other teams willing to overlook the age projections and give Green what he wants provides him plenty of leverage.
Golden State is more apt to offer Green a three- or fouryear max deal than the full five-year contract. If the Warriors believe Green would bristle at that, they might have to start exploring trade opportunities.
It is an intriguing subplot as Golden State nears July, when eight of the 14 players on its roster hit free agency.
“This is a business,” Green said at media day in September. “You always have to explore those options, see what makes sense and what doesn’t. Try to do what’s best for the team, and what’s best for Draymond. But I feel like I’m going to be here a long time.”