Democrats start jockeying early for run in 2020
The 2020 presidential race will start any minute now, with California Sen. Kamala Harris saying she’ll decide “over the holiday” whether to run and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti promising to make his intentions known before the end of the year.
The Californians — both of whom are expected to run — could trigger an avalanche of announcements in January among the two dozen or so Democrats harboring White House dreams. Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro announced Wednesday that he formed an exploratory committee, usually a
precursor to a run. The entire field is expected to announce by the end of April.
“I do expect that a lot of the people who will run will get in very early,” said Rick Jacobs, a senior political adviser to Garcetti.
But announcing for the presidency has to be about more than just saying, “I’m in.” By the time candidates launch, they need a core staff in place, a fundraising plan, a coherent message and a digital operation that is able to amplify the candidate’s voice in an authentic way.
“There’s a race to get the top donors and the race to get to the top staff,” said Bill Burton, a top official on Barack Obama’s first presidential campaign who is not affiliated with a current prospective candidate.
Historically, this is a bit early for opening a White House bid — unless your name is Tom Vilsack. The then-governor of Iowa announced for the 2008 Democratic nomination on Nov. 30, 2006, nearly two years before election day. He earned the ignominious distinction as the cycle’s first former major candidate when he dropped out in February 2007 because he couldn’t raise enough money.
This year’s Vilsack is John Delaney, a former three-term Maryland congressman who has been running for president since July 2017. He’s already paid 20 visits to Iowa, the first state to hold caucuses, and sat for an interview with the Des Moines Register’s editorial board.
It’s a sign of how “very early” is a lot earlier than it used to be. Obama was a first-term U.S. senator largely unknown outside political circles when he announced for the 2008 nomination in February 2007. Hillary Clinton waited until April 2015 to announce for the 2016 race. Donald Trump rode down the escalator at Trump Tower two months after that.
But the liberal organization MoveOn is anticipating an accelerated timeline for 2020. In mid-December, the organization surveyed its members about their preferences from a list of 33 potential candidates.
MoveOn, whose members contributed $4.5 million to candidates the group endorsed in 2018, wants an early read on progressive favorites who might not be getting media attention. In 2016, MoveOn endorsed Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who is likely to run again for the Democratic nomination.
Sanders, however, came in fourth among 33 candidates in the straw poll of MoveOn members announced Tuesday. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, fresh off a loss in the Texas race for U.S. Senate against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, led with 15.6 percent, just ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden. Harris was fifth, at 10 percent, and Garcetti was well down among the also-rans.
The poll’s most popular response reflects how early it is to be asking voters: Just under 18 percent chose “Someone else/Don’t know.”
MoveOn’s reason for polling its members now: “The dynamics of so many speculative candidates being out there could result in inaccurate claims of who the leading early contenders are,” said Rahna Epting, the organization’s chief programming officer.
“It is challenging to do this now, because a lot of times polls are mostly indicators of name recognition and not support,” Epting said.
Here are some of the challenges for potential candidates:
Fundraising: It is illegal for a candidate to begin raising money until opening at least an exploratory committee for president. But it is legal to do what candidates are doing now: calling major donors and asking, “If I were to run, would I have your support?”
Some donors, however, are reluctant to commit until everyone who’s going to run is actually running. Others keep their checkbooks closed until they see which candidates are gaining traction.
“In the Democratic Party, there aren’t enough rich people to cover everybody,” said Rebecca Katz, a political adviser to California entrepreneur and anti-poverty advocate Joe Sanberg. Potential supporters are urging Sanberg to run, and he “is taking the conversation seriously,” Katz said.
Jacobs, the adviser to Garcetti, said, “The only way you know when people are going to give you money is when the check clears.”
Networking: For months, every top White House prospect has been raising money or hitting the trail for congressional and state candidates in places that vote early in the process, including Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. It’s a way to introduce themselves to influential county chairs and local officeholders, building relationships that can lead to endorsements and, they hope, votes.
Harris has been especially busy, raising $6 million for candidates this year. Garcetti held a fundraiser in September for 11 state party chairs and raised money for candidates in Ohio and Nevada.
Messaging: In a crowded field, it’s especially important for a candidate to launch with a clearly stated reason for running. Obama’s 2007 opening salvo was a classic: “Change.” Clinton, on the other hand, cycled through several attempts in 2015-16 before settling on “I’m with her,” which too few people were.
Many candidates come out with memoirs that preface their candidacies. Harris is expected to release hers, “The Truths We Hold: An American Journey,” on Jan. 8 and open a five-city book tour that includes a Jan. 12 appearance at San Francisco’s Curran Theatre. Sanders dropped his political road map, “Where We Go From Here,” in November, and Castro, the former HUD secretary, published “An Unlikely Journey: Waking up from My American Dream” in October.
Hiring: Behind the scenes, there is a feeding frenzy right now for top talent. A fledgling campaign isn’t going anywhere without a strong communications, ground operations and digital team.
“Think of presidential staffing like NFL free agency,” said Kevin Mack, a political adviser to billionaire San Francisco activist and former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, who is considering a run. “People have lists of what they’re looking for and then they’re working their way down the list.”
There’s an added urgency to the Democrats’ White House dreams because the party won control of the House in November, said Jennifer Fiore, a senior adviser to Castro.
“There’s an enthusiasm right now,” Fiore said, “to make a change in this nation as soon as possible.”
Joe Garofoli is The San Francisco Chronicle’s senior political writer. Email: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @joegarofoli