2018 expectations ravaged by injury
Against the advice of my lawyer and loved ones, I will do something that calls my competence into question.
Yes, it’s time to revisit the 25 predictions for the 49ers’ 2018 season that were made in July.
As it turns out, the 49ers didn’t have a 10-6 season that ended with a wild-card game in Green Bay. And the 49ers didn’t rank in the NFL’s top 10 in points and yards.
Hard-luck head coaches are fond of saying, “Injuries aren’t an excuse, but …” But how was I to know Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon would have torn ACLs before October?
1. Unlike three Blaine starting the seasons 49ers’ Gabbert, QBs (Colin seasonopening the Brian Kaepernick, previous Hoyer), be benched Jimmy during Garoppolo the season. won’t (A clause in my contract: “Going 0-for-25 on preseason 49ers predictions will be grounds for termination.”) What happened: Just trusted my gut on this one, folks. 2. Richard Sherman returning to Seattle will be a major story line before the 49ers visit Seattle. (There is also contract language about going 1-for-25.) What happened: Nailed it. (Sherman made it an even bigger story by appearing nauseous whenever Seahawks QB Russell Wilson was mentioned in the days before kickoff). 3. Sherman won’t be over the hill, but he also won’t recapture his All-Pro form. He’ll have a solid season that will include three interceptions, while officially transitioning to the “wily veteran” stage of his career. What happened: Sherman wasn’t an All-Pro (or Pro Bowler) and didn’t have an interception. However, he was rarely targeted and his season was better than merely “solid.” 4. The 49ers won’t regret taking right tackle Mike McGlinchey with the No. 9 pick. The rookie will make a seamless transition to the NFL and leave no doubt about the succession plan when left tackle Joe Staley, 33, retires. What happened: McGlinchey’s strong debut means the 49ers don’t regret taking him with the No. 9 pick. 5. The 49ers will rebound from a 3-4 start to finish 10-6 and reach the postseason for the first time since 2013. But don’t celebrate too wildly: They will lose a wildcard playoff game to the Packers 27-19 at Lambeau Field. … On second thought, make that score 27-20.What happened: The 49ers started 1-6 and didn’t rebound. Playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? To continue quoting Jim Mora: This was a diddlypoo prediction. 6. Wins: vs. Lions, at Chargers, vs. Cardinals, at Cardinals, vs. Raiders, vs. Giants, at Seahawks, vs. Seahawks, vs. Broncos, vs. Bears. What happened: Nailed all of their wins (vs. Lions, vs. Raiders, vs. Seahawks, vs. Broncos), but had six too many. Oops. 7. Losses: at Vikings, at Chiefs, at Packers, vs. Rams, at Buccaneers, at Rams. What happened: Nailed all those losses, but … failed to account for six other defeats. 8. Garoppolo will become the first 49ers QB to throw for 4,000 yards since Jeff Garcia in 2000. His final numbers: 4,222 yards with 29 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He’ll miss one game with a moderate high ankle sprain. What happened: Well, the 49ers’ QBs combined to throw for 4,247 yards with 26 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. 9. The 49ers will rank among the NFL’s top 10 in both points and total yards for the first time since 2003. What happened: The 49ers ranked 21st in points and 16th in total yards. 10. Running back Jerick McKinnon will earn his fat salary by putting up big numbers: 1,032 yards rushing (4.4 yards a carry), with 68 receptions for 589 yards. What happened: You and I had as many yards as McKinnon. 11. Wide receiver Dante Pettis, a second-round pick, will have a quiet season: 20 catches for 267 yards and one TD. What happened: Pettis made slightly more noise: 27 catches for 467 yards and five TDs. 12. Tight end George Kittle will have 43 catches for 516 yards and 4 TDs. (If it’s not broken, folks. …) New “Monday Night Football” analyst Jason Witten will become a fan. What happened: The back story: In 2017, I predicted Kittle would have 43 catches for 516 yards (he had 43 catches for 515 yards). I was so pleased with myself that I reminded readers of my previous year’s brilliance. So my ego is to blame for this wildly inaccurate prognostication. Sure, Witten was a fan, but so was everyone else after Kittle had 88 receptions for 1,377 yards. 13. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner will have a team-high 8½ sacks. What happened: Buckner had a team-high 12 sacks. 14. Defensive lineman Solomon Thomas will take the next step in his development, but injury-riddled Arik happened: way Armstead around. This Thomas defensive will went not. had the What lineman just other one sack. Armstead, who had three sacks, was a run-stopping force. 15. The lack of a consistent pass rush will limit the defense’s ability to take a major leap in Robert Saleh’s second season. However, the 49ers will benefit from an improved offense and jump from 24th to 15th in yards allowed per game. What happened: The pass rush remained an issue (22nd in sacks) and the 49ers finished 13th in yards allowed per game. 16. Six of the 49ers’ nine draft picks will make the 53-man roster. Fourth-round defensive tackle Kentavius Street (torn ACL) will spend the season on injured reserve and both seventh-rounders, defensive lineman Jullian Taylor and wide receiver Richie James, will land on the practice squad. What happened: Eight of the 49ers’ nine draft picks made the 53man roster. Street spent the season on injured reserve. 17. In a nod to the talent upgrade, no undrafted rookies will make the opening 53-man roster after five did so last year. What happened: No undrafted rookies made the opening 53-man roster. 18. Best free-agent signing: McKinnon, although similarly high-priced center Weston Richburg won’t disappoint. What happened: The 49ers don’t regret signing Richburg, but their best free-agent move involved right guard Mike Person. The journeyman capably started 16 games while earning $915,000. 19. Worst free-agent signing: Their modest one-year investment in pass rusher Jeremiah Attaochu won’t yield huge dividends. Attaochu will have three sacks. What happened: Attaochu wins the “prize” although he was even worse than expected: He was released before the season opener. 20. Best-value draft pick: linebacker Fred Warner (third round, No. 70 overall). What happened: Counting this as a win. Warner started 16 games, made all the defensive calls and ranked 12th in the NFL in tackles (124). 21. Worst-value draft pick: Pettis (second round, No. 44 overall) What happened: Pettis showed promise, but dealt with two knee injuries and had more than 35 receiving yards in just five of 12 games played. Another contender here is third-round cornerback Tarvarius Moore, although his quiet season wasn’t totally surprising considering the former Southern Miss safety was transitioning to a new position. 22. Despite missing four games (two to suspension, two to injury), linebacker Reuben Foster will lead the team with 96 tackles. What happened: Foster missed four games becaue of a suspension and a hamstring injury, but had just 29 tackles in six games before he was released in November following his third arrest in a 10-month span. 23. The 49ers will add a pass rusher, via trade, free-agent signing or the waiver wire, before the season opener. What happened: None of the above happened, but the 49ers say they aggressively pursued a trade for Khalil Mack. So I get half credit. My predictions, my rules. 24. Leading receivers: Pierre Garcon will have team highs in receptions (80) and yards (1,057) and will be followed in catches by McKinnon (68), Marquise Goodwin (45), Kittle (43) and Trent Taylor (35). What happened: Ooh, this was ugly. Garcon had 24 catches for 286 yards. Their top five pass catchers were Kittle (88), Kendrick Bourne (42), Kyle Juszczyk (30), Matt Breida (27) and Pettis (27). Taylor had 26 catches and Goodwin had 23. 25. Garoppolo will be the first 49ers QB voted to the Pro Bowl since Garcia in 2002. He will be joined at the Pro Bowl by Staley, Buckner and Juszczyk. What happened: Kittle and Juszczyk were voted to the Pro Bowl. Buckner was named an alternate.