Sierra survey finds snowpack is lacking
Belowaverage reading no cause for panic, say officials
Despite a damp December that delivered 18 days of rain and hope for a wet and snowy winter, California’s snowpack has fallen well below average.
But it’s not yet time to panic, state water officials said Thursday after taking the second snowpack measurement of the season near Phillips Station near Echo Summit.
“If you remember back to 2012 to 2015, this field was completely bare, with grass,” said Sean de Guzman, chief of snow surveys for the state Department of Water Resources. “We’re standing currently on 4 to 5 feet of snow, so I’d say we’re in decent shape
right now.”
The snow depth, measured by thrusting a calibrated pole into the accumulated snow, is 40.5 inches, with an estimated water content of 14½ inches when it melts and flows down the South Fork of the American River and into Folsom Lake. The measurement is 79% of the February average, and 58% of average for April 1, which is when the snowpack is traditionally its deepest.
Phillips Station is just one of 260 locations up and down the Sierra and southern Cascades where the state measures snow depth, mostly using electronic sensors. The statewide average, according to those devices, is about 72% of average for this time of year, de Guzman said.
Last year at this time, the snowdepth measured about average, he said. But atmospheric rivers delivered major storms in February, March and April, lifting the snow levels past 150% of average and filling reservoirs.
“It shows just how unpredictable snow and precipitation are in California,” de Guzman said, “and how just a few atmospheric rivers can drastically change a water year like we’re having now into a wet water year.”
Jan Null, a veteran meteorologist who runs Golden Gate Weather Service, agreed that it’s too early to start skipping showers and letting your lawn die.
“We are just a week past the midpoint in rainfall season, so it’s really too early to say we’re in a drought,” he said. “I’ve seen too many miracle Marches and awesome Aprils over the decades, where you can make up this kind of ground in a short time.”
It takes more than one dry year to send the state into a drought, he said, and after two wet years, the amount of water stored in California’s reservoirs remains high.
“However, water is California’s most valuable resource and we should always be trying to conserve it,” Null said.
Forecasts for the next two to three weeks, however, show no indication of an atmospheric river arriving, de Guzman said. Forecasts beyond that are less reliable, he said, but the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecast “looks to be on the drier side.”
Climate change is making water supply predictions based on snowpack measurements more challenging, he said, with the snowline rising and the meltoff starting earlier than in the past.
“We’re seeing varying conditions that we’re just not used to seeing,” de Guzman said.