California now has second highest total of coronavirus cases
California has surpassed New Jersey as the state with the second highest number of coronavirus cases in the country with more than 176,000 infections as of Sunday afternoon, according to a Chronicle analysis.
That total eclipses New Jersey, which has reported more than 169,000 cases. California reported record daily numbers of new coronavirus cases last week as shelterinplace restrictions continued to lift. The infection rate, per capita, is still significantly lower in California, where nearly 40 million people live, versus 9 million in New Jersey. New York has more than 387,000 cases, more than any other state.
“We’re not out of the woods,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a news conference last week. “As we mix, as we reopen, inevitably we’re going to see an increase in the total number of cases. It’s our responsibility to address that and to make sure we’re prepared for spikes.”
Experts say case increases are likely due to the state easing shelterinplace restrictions and people gathering together, sometimes without social distancing, which was evident during recent holidays such as Memorial Day. All but five California counties — including four in the Bay Area — have received approval to move into Stage 3 of reopening, where services like indoor dining, fitness centers and hotels can begin to reopen and gatherings can involve more people.
California recorded its first day with 3,000 new cases on May 30. Over a sevenday period ending Saturday, the average has been more than
3,500, with a singleday high of 4,411 on Wednesday, according to The Chronicle’s coronavirus tracker. Hospitalizations statewide reached 3,574 on Saturday, a record high.
Most of the state’s cases are still in Southern California. Los Angeles reported the highest number of cases, although Imperial County recorded the most cases per capita, followed by Kings County, according to New York Times data.
The nine counties in the Bay Area also reported a record daily high of 457 new coronavirus cases on Saturday.
More people in the Bay Area are getting tested, but more tests are also coming back positive, said Dr. Stephen Parodi, associate executive director of the Permanente Medical Group. Kaiser Permanente Northern California noticed a significant pickup in the percentage of positive tests conducted at its clinics in Oakland and the Central Valley in the past three weeks, he said.
New Bay Area cases haven’t led directly to more hospitalizations, which have remained relatively stable. Calls about COVID19 to Kaiser’s call center tripled from a month and a half ago, Parodi said. At the start of the pandemic, such calls often led to hospital visits a couple of weeks later. Kaiser hasn’t seen the same correlation recently, except for a slight uptick in Oakland, he said.
One possible explanation is that the statewide average age of people with the virus is dropping, California Department of Public Health data shows. Parodi said about half of the people currently testing positive through Kaiser are between the ages of 18 and 50.
Parodi pointed out that as the pandemic began, the state clamped down on outbreaks in nursing homes, initially hot spots for virus transmission. Now, cases are spreading more in the community as people start to gather again.
Younger people are less likely to have severe outcomes and require hospitalization for COVID19 — but can spread the virus to others more at risk.
“Even if those people are at less risk of landing in the hospital, I’m really worried that they’re in households where some of these more vulnerable people live,” Parodi said.
Experts say there’s little evidence that mass protests against police brutality and racial inequality, sparked by the death of George Floyd on Memorial Day, led to a spike in cases as was initially feared. Dr. Bob Wachter, head of UCSF’s Department of Medicine, said cases haven’t disproportionately emerged in large U.S. cities with more protests, but instead in locations that reopened the economy faster.
More cases as people mingle are to be expected, he said, but must be watched closely.
“It’s inconceivable that you could reopen and not see some uptick in cases,” Wachter said. “We’re making a calculated decision and generally thoughtful decision about how large an increase in cases we are willing to tolerate for the advantages of improving the economy and improving people’s lives.”
Public health departments are tracking data including hospital capacity, number of tests, ability to trace cases, and how much personal protective equipment is available to understand whether the state is opening at the right pace.
“The goal is you don’t want to increase the cases so much that you overwhelm the health care system and can’t track cases and do contact tracing. That presents you an upper boundary of how much opening is prudent,” Wachter said. “Opening up is a dynamic process.”