Faulty figures hinder state’s virus response
SACRAMENTO — Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, Gov. Gavin Newsom has said the state’s response would be guided by data. Now, a lack of accurate data has thrown that response into limbo.
A bug in California’s electronic system for collecting infectious disease data is causing mass confusion over the state coronavirus response at a time when public health, education and business leaders already are struggling to plan for an uncertain future.
State officials revealed the computer problem Tuesday, and admitted that it has led to cases being underreported in many if not all counties. Even though the problem apparently started last month, Newsom cited some of the nowquestionable data Monday as reason for cautious optimism after more than a month of surging numbers.
The malfunction, which state officials have not
fully explained, also is hampering some counties’ ability to do critical case investigation work that relies on quick identification of new infections to stop spread of disease.
“The idea is that data is supposed to be driving the decisions we make, but that data is unreliable, and it’s very hard to make the right decisions,” David Campos, deputy county executive for Santa Clara County, said Thursday. “We’re not going to be able to do right by our citizens if the data provided to us by the state is incomplete.”
San Francisco public health officials said Thursday that they will not update certain testing, case and contact tracing metrics until the problem is resolved, though they planned to keep updating overall case counts and other data that may be affected by the state’s computer problem.
“The delay in the state’s system may give an impression that COVID19 cases are slowing down, when this may not be the case,” city health officials said in a statement.
“The state’s technology issue is also impacting the city’s ability to conduct prompt case investigation and contact tracing,” the statement said, adding that San Francisco investigators are reaching fewer newly infected people because of the reporting problems.
Campos said Santa Clara County is similarly hobbled in its case investigation work. “There are a large number of cases that haven’t been reported to us, and those are cases we haven’t been able to properly investigate,” he said. “It’s frustrating and very upsetting for us.”
The state problem has resulted in an apparent undercount of new coronavirus cases and positive test results. Hospitalization and intensive care unit patient numbers are not affected.
The state has not said how long the problem has existed, though public health officials in Santa Clara and Marin counties said they first became aware of a problem around July 15 and are doubtful of numbers since then.
On Monday, Newsom cited a 21% drop in new cases over the past two weeks as cause for optimism. His office did not respond to a request for comment on why he cited the nowquestionable figure.
Mark Ghaly, Health and Human Services secretary for California, confirmed the reporting issue Tuesday. He said it appears that test results that laboratories feed to the state and local health departments aren’t uploading to the data system known as CalREDIE, short for the California Reportable Disease Information Exchange.
“This is our top priority and a team of dozens has been working around the clock to resolve these data problems,” Ghaly said in a statement Thursday. “We will not rest until this problem is resolved.”
Laboratories report positive results for dozens of infectious diseases to CalREDIE, which then passes along those results to counties for investigation. Not all counties rely solely on CalREDIE, though most depend on it for all or most of their identification of new cases.
Marin County Health Officer Matt Willis said his county has been less impacted than others because it collects most of its case data directly from laboratories. He noticed a discrepancy between the state and his county’s reports in midJuly, and “the gap continued to widen, and that was a concern,” he said.
The problem seems more pronounced in Napa County, which has not received a report from Quest Diagnostics, the largest provider of coronavirus test results in the county, since July 31, according to the health officer. Patient care has not been delayed, and “you are still hearing if you test positive,” Health Officer Karen Relucio said in an online presentation Thursday. “But the data is not getting to us.”
Relucio said California public health officials had instructed laboratories to report results directly to the counties instead of the state until the problem is fixed.
Aside from hindering counties’ ability to keep track of and investigate new coronavirus cases, the reporting problem has cast doubt on a host of responses to the pandemic, from whether elementary schools might be able to apply for waivers to reopen classrooms to the timeline for businesses to reopen.
The state relies on case counts, among several other metrics, to determine whether counties are placed on a monitoring list that restricts certain activities. Thirtyeight of the state’s 58 counties — including all Bay Area counties — are on the monitoring list.
Several counties, including San Mateo, questioned whether they belong on the list, and the reporting problems may cast further doubt.
In a statement Thursday, San Mateo County Health Officer Scott Morrow referred to the state problem as a “data meltdown,” and said that despite the reporting delays, he’s confident his county is making headway in slowing its outbreak.
Earlier this week, the Newsom administration announced that elementary schools could apply for waivers to reopen even if they are in counties on the monitoring list. Schools will be allowed to open only if their counties’ case rate for the previous two weeks is less than 200 per 100,000 people — twice the total that lands a county on the monitoring list.
But many counties probably won’t know if schools are eligible to reopen without accurate case rates. The state hasn’t updated numbers for counties on the monitoring list since Saturday.
“The state is using this incomplete data to make decisions about all these counties, decisions that impact our residents and our businesses,” said Santa Clara County’s Campos. “It’s really difficult to have a system that predicates outcomes on data that is incorrect, or incomplete in this case.”
While many public school districts don’t intend to seek waivers for elementary schools to reopen for inperson learning, the data issue could affect many private or charter schools that would have an easier time meeting state criteria.
Dan Glass, who runs the Brandeis School of San Francisco, a private school in the Parkmerced neighborhood, said the state’s computer problem has added confusion to an already complicated process as schools consider whether to apply for waivers to reopen.
“It certainly doesn’t make me feel more confident in all of what’s happening,” he said. “The consistency of that data that we’re supposedly basing our decisionmaking on is critical.”
Glass said he’s been concerned for weeks about making a decision to reopen if facts surrounding the state’s infection rate and science surrounding transmission of the virus continue to change. He said Brandeis will stick with virtual learning until at least late October.
The situation also creates problems for businesses in counties on the state monitoring list. Newsom has ordered those counties to close a range of businesses, including shopping malls, barbershops, nail salons, gyms and most office spaces.
Mike Blakeley, CEO of the Marin Economic Forum, a think tank and business advocacy group in Marin County, said the data problem complicates an already hazy timeline for when sectors of the economy might reopen.
“This is just one more piece of concerning news, because the data is the prevailing determinant of how the economy opens,” he said. “Of course, if the data comes into question that’s alarming.”