An ‘uncomfortable’ draft for Warriors
Bob Myers feels a bit uneasy these days. For the first time in his eight years as the Warriors’ general manager, he knows he could draft someone without first seeing the player in person.
“It makes me a little uncomfortable, to be honest,” Myers said on a conference call with reporters Monday previewing the franchise’s most important draft lottery in nearly two decades. “It’s a rare thing. In the past, even if you’d missed a game, you would at least get to see a player in your own facility.”
Such is the new reality during the coronavirus pandemic: With the NIT, NCAA Tournament, Portsmouth Invitational and inperson workouts canceled to adhere to socialdistancing protocols, teams could invest millions of dollars in players without so much as shaking their hands. Perhaps the only positive is that all 30 franchises are facing the same constraints.
As scouts and general managers wait to learn whether the NBA will hold a draft combine in some form, they’re relying on RingCentral interviews, phone calls and old game video to rank prospects. The stakes are particularly high for the Warriors, who, after finishing their quarantineshortened season with a leagueworst record of 1550, are guaranteed their first topfive pick since 2002.
With Stephen Curry (age 32), Klay Thompson (30) and Draymond Green (30) on the back end of their primes, Golden State hopes to draft someone who can contribute immediately and, within the next several years, blossom into a face of the franchise. This is no easy task in a draft with no obvious generational prospect like Zion Williamson or LeBron James.
The Warriors have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, a 13.4% chance at No. 2, a 12.7% chance at No. 3, a 12% chance at No. 4 and a 47.9% chance at No. 5. Even if it gets lucky at Thursday’s virtual lottery and lands the top selection in October’s draft, Golden State is far from guaranteed to avoid adding to the team’s list of draftnight busts that includes Russell Cross (No. 6 pick, 1983), Chris Washburn (No. 3, 1986) and Ekpe Udoh (No. 6, 2010).
Multiple league sources have told The Chronicle that the Warriors would likely take Georgia shooting guard Anthony Edwards with the No. 1 selection, but he is not exactly a can’tmiss prospect. Scouts have questioned everything from his motor to his 3point shot to his basketball instincts.
“I think hindsight is a little more poignant with things like this,” Myers said, referencing the pressure that comes with a topfive pick. “We’ll either be celebrated or criticized more than we would because there’s more of a focus on guys drafted this high.”
Myers was promoted to general manager in April 2012, two months before the Warriors drafted North Carolina forward Harrison Barnes seventh overall. In the seven drafts since, Golden State hasn’t selected earlier than 28th, a spot late enough that even players picked there who don’t last in the league past their rookie contract aren’t considered busts.
To help overcome the lack of inperson time with prospects in recent months, the Warriors have gone down analytics rabbit holes. In addition to reviewing every second of lottery hopefuls’ relevant game film, Golden State’s scouts have called players’ old coaches, talked to a handful of prospects on RingCentral and studied past draftnight misses.
When Myers wants another opinion on a player, he doesn’t hesitate to text or call Curry, Thompson or Green. But even though the coronavirus forced the NBA to push back the draft five months and afforded his staff more time for film study, Myers recognizes that, given his limited interaction with prospects, whatever the Warriors do with their pick will be even more of an inexact science than normal.
Before the NCAA cut short its college basketball season in midMarch, someone in Golden State’s front office watched every potential lottery prospect in person at least once. Hiring anyone, however, would ideally involve an extensive vetting process — especially for a job that will pay between $5.6 million and $8.6 million next season.
“Ultimately,” Myers said, “there is a gut component to it.”