Milestone: Fears of surge in U.S. mount, but counts level off in state, Bay Area
The U.S. marked a bleak milestone Tuesday, surpassing 200,000 deaths attributed to the coronavirus. But as case counts rise in several states and fears mount over a coming surge, infection and mortality rates have leveled off in California and the Bay Area.
Public health officials and experts attribute the state’s relative success to widespread adoption of maskwearing protocols, along with improved testing and the shifting demographic of those infected. Smoky skies from chronic wildfires also have kept people inside and likely stemmed the spread of disease in recent weeks.
“Simple acts make a big difference,” said Mark Ghaly, secretary of California Health and Human Services, during his weekly COVID19 briefing.
With flu season ahead, coupled with an expected fall uptick in coronavirus cases, the state and region both hope to successfully balance the concerns of public health with the pressures of reopening the economy and resuming some semblance of normal life.
The state’s numbers are clearly trending downward. California recorded 2,760 new coronavirus cases Tuesday, according to state officials, after averaging 3,474 cases a day over the past seven days.
Over the past 14 days, the percentage of people testing positive has averaged 3.0% statewide, continuing a downward trend and well below the goal of staying under 8%. Hospitalization rates declined 23%, while ICU rates plummeted 25%.
Even though the Bay Area is expected to reach 100,000 cases Wednesday, the number of new cases has steadily declined since midAugust. About 3,700 cases have been reported each of the past two weeks, which is about half the number of cases reported on average per week just one month ago.
The average number of deaths per 100,000 in California, over the past five weeks shows an overall decline, barring a slight increase in the Bay Area over the past three weeks due to a reporting lag from Alameda County.
Due to the encouraging data, the state is amending county economic reopening guidelines using California’s new colorcoded tier system. Locally, Alameda, San Mateo and Solano counties advanced to a lessrestrictive tier Tuesday, joining Napa, Marin and Santa Clara counties on the precipice of opening more businesses.
“We had counties move from all of the different tiers into a lessrestrictive tier this week and we anticipate that we may see more of that even next week,” said Ghaly.
Sonoma and Contra Costa counties are the only two Bay Area counties remaining in the lowest tier of progress.
In an encouraging sign, public health officials have not observed an anticipated spike in new cases after Labor Day, as some worried would happen.
As a preventive measure, some beaches and parks scattered around the Bay Area were closed over the long weekend as officials tried to discourage the large gatherings that led to spikes following both Memorial Day and the Fourth of July.
But it’s likely that the tripledigit temperatures and three major wildfires in the region also helped curb the spread of the virus leading to the latest tally, as people were forced to stay home, and many businesses shuttered because of the toxic smoke and ash that covered the skies throughout Northern California.
Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at UCSF, attributes the declining rate of hospitalizations in the Bay Area to increased testing and the shifting demographic of COVID cases, as more younger people who are infected have better outcomes.
She said the region’s acceptance of masking guidelines is also a factor in the improving numbers.
“All the places with masking have had so much better success,” Gandhi said. “Populationlevel masking is a powerful pillar of pandemic control.”
The widespread use of face coverings may also play a role in reducing the severity of the disease for those who are infected, she said, by containing the amount of SARSCoV2 viral particles that are floating around in the air.
“The fact that we’re wearing masks is undoubtedly the good thing,” said Michael Lin, associate professor of bioengineering at Stanford. “Before masks were recommended, there was this steady plateau of new cases that would not go away. It’s because of maskwearing that we're seeing case rates drop.”
State officials are hopeful that improved COVID19 testing turnaround times will help propel the downward trend in cases.
Laboratories statewide are recording results within two days 90% of the time, Dr. Erica Pan, deputy director of the state Department of Public Health Center for Infectious Diseases, told a virtual news conference.
“Good news all around but, really, a reminder that despite seeing a steady downward trajectory, that we cannot drop our guard,” Ghaly said.