Grocers guess on turkey demand
Organic turkeys. Kosher turkeys. Freerange turkeys. Small turkeys. Big turkeys.
Mike Stone ordered all of them to make sure there are enough birds to go around this Thanksgiving at his small Bay Area grocery chain, Mollie Stone’s Markets. That’s because he — along with other Bay Area retailers, food distributors and ranchers — isn’t exactly sure what to expect from a holiday season during a pandemic.
There are several theories about how the holiday will play out, turkey wise. Coronavirus-related shutdowns probably spurred many San Francisco residents to leave the city, making
some retailers think demand will be down for turkeys this year; they’ve ordered fewer of them.
On the flip side, others like Stone predict a need for even more turkeys because fewer Bay Area residents will leave town for the holidays — but smaller ones because socialdistancing requirements will probably result in smaller gatherings. That could result in fast sellouts of the slimmest turkeys, which typically start at 8 pounds.
Monica Rocchino, owner of the Local Butcher Shop in Berkeley, said she thinks people will be attached to the romanticism of carving a whole turkey tableside — and they won’t want a 25pound bird for a family of four. So she just changed the Thanksgiving turkey order for her shop to zero in on 8to 10pound birds. Since the meattobone ratio goes down with smaller birds, she recommends groups plan for 1 ½ pounds per person.
“A lot of people are going to be like, ‘ There’s only three of us so we don’t need an 8pound bird,’ ” she said. “Well, you kind of do. They don’t make 6pound birds. Or you can just get two chickens.”
People across the country still feel committed to their Thanksgiving celebrations, according to a consumer survey by Butterball. Nearly 90% said that they will make a Thanksgiving meal happen, with 75% saying it will help them establish a sense of normalcy. The survey also found that 30% of people are hosting only immediate family this year, which is about double previous years.
Still, it’s a guessing game on how sales will look. In a typical year, stores and distributors order all their turkeys in February and make final adjustments by August. But this year, some stores are actively trying to change their orders as they get a better sense of what their customers want.
Some retailers are betting that sales overall will be lower. Some farms like Diestel Family Ranch saw a small dip in turkey orders as distributors and stores opted to be more conservative in their estimates. Preorders for turkeys from grocers were also down for San Francisco food distributor A. Tarantino & Sons, said company President Anthony Tarantino.
Normally, Tarantino would order a few hundred extra turkeys for Thanksgiving in February, just so he has enough if retailers want to add more at the last minute. But when he heard about the coronavirus, he skipped the extras.
“There’s so little margin in holiday turkeys that it wasn’t worth it for us to get stuck with extra turkeys,” he said. “It’s hard to turn around and sell them late.”
Yet others are anticipating rapid sellouts, particularly of smaller birds. That’s why some stores such as Mollie Stone’s are already accepting reservations online and by phone. San Francisco’s Luke’s Local is setting up a reservations system and encouraging shoppers to commit early or risk a turkeyless holiday.
That said, there’s no risk of a turkey shortage, according to several producers. That’s because planning for this year’s Thanksgiving started in 2019. Big corporations like Butterball do most of their business in frozen turkeys and have plenty to go around, while smaller operations like Mary’s FreeRange Turkeys and Diestel started hatching eggs around March. Some families just might get stuck with a larger bird than they would prefer.
Farmers who allow their birds to grow naturally for six months or more didn’t have the option to change their plans once they understood the seriousness of the pandemic.
“Everything was solidified for us,” said rancher Heidi Diestel. “We had what we had.”
Store owners are hoping to meet current needs in ways beyond whole birds. The Local Butcher Shop, for example, will sell halved big turkeys and turkey parts with detailed cooking videos to help firsttime Thanksgiving hosts, along with lots of prepared sides.
Luke’s Local’s familystyle Thanksgiving dinners will shrink slightly to feed three to five people, and the store is offering smaller a la carte dishes for the first time. Meanwhile, Mollie Stone’s will offer a range of premade Thanksgiving dinner sizes suitable for two people up to a group of 16.
That just leaves the issue of physically getting the turkey during the era of social distancing.
“Going to a grocery store the week of Thanksgiving is already hectic,” Diestel said, adding she expects online sales to be popular this year. “It would be wise for folks to get their bird earlier and stick it in their freezer to alleviate some of the pressure.”