| Business: Jobless claims surge
U. S. figures rise, but state’s data not yet caught up
Before the pandemic, Marcus Kryshka worked as a convention installer and builder. The seemingly endless run of events in San Francisco at venues like the Moscone Center kept him busy for the past nine years as tech boomed in the city. The last show he worked on was in the first week of March.
“I’ve been living off my savings ever since,” Kryshka said. “Unfortunately, I’ve also been digging through my daughter’s college fund.”
Kryshka is one of the more than 9 million Californians who have sought unemployment benefits since midMarch, when the state and local authorities imposed shelterinplace restrictions shutting down many businesses.
Numbers released Thursday showing rising unemployment nationwide, amid a backdrop of surging coronavirus cases, suggest that job losses could be on the rise again.
California, with an aging state unemployment system illdesigned for the wave of claimants who lost jobs in the pandemic, declared a twoweek pause on unemployment applications starting in late September so it could install new software and overhaul its processes. The Employment Development Department started taking a trickle of applications to test the system in late September
and officially reopened for claims Oct. 5.
But California’s latest claim numbers are not reflected in the Department of Labor’s count, which instead used an older weekly figure — 226,179, the number of claims filed in the state in the week before the pause. After making the usual seasonal adjustments, the department reported that 898,000 people filed for unemployment across the country last week, the highest level since mid-August.
Just over 10 million people remained on the unemployment rolls as of Oct. 3, a 10% drop from the prior week. The more recent uptick in claims is not reflected in that number.
Since the beginning of the pandemic’s economic disruption in March, unemployment benefits in California topped $ 101 billion, the state employment department reported Thursday. That included $ 6 billion in federal Lost Wages Assistance benefits, a program that is ending in the state with a sixth and final weekly payment of $ 300 for those eligible, the agency said. It reported it had processed about 15.2 million unemployment claims since March through its regular and pandemic related benefits programs.
With flu season beginning and a potential new wave of coronavirus infections, many states face the potential for new shutdowns. While the Bay Area remains an outlier, with relatively low rates of new cases in most counties, it is not immune to the nation’s broader economic woes.
“The nearterm forecast nationally and in California depends heavily on whether there’s another shutdown. If the pace in reopening stays the same as it’s been the past few months, I’d expect better than average growth,” said Ted Egan, chief economist for the city of San Francisco. “The third quarter will be a very big quarter for ( gross domestic product) growth and I expect around 4% growth until next summer, with more moderate growth after that.”
Much depends on California’s progress in fighting the pandemic. When there was an uptick in coronavirus cases during the summer, state health officials ordered several counties to shut down bars, restaurants and other public places to tame the spread of the disease, affecting already battered leisure and hospitality industries, which have borne the brunt of job losses in California and elsewhere.
“A Vshaped ( recovery) is the most likely if there is no second shutdown; a W is definitely possible if there is,” Egan said. He also said a federal stimulus package is “long overdue, and the recovery is weakening because of it.”
Since federal stimulus funds dried up months ago, there hasn’t been a consensus between Democrats and Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration on what the next COVID19 relief package will look like.
The White House presented a $ 1.8 trillion relief package Oct. 9 that entails $ 1,200 stimulus checks for individuals and a renewal of payroll assistance for certain industries, but President Trump’s proposal fell short of the Democrats’ plan for a $ 2.2 trillion relief package. Confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett have occupied the Senate.
“The vast majority of Americans want the Senate to pass additional COVID19 relief legislation instead of pushing through a Supreme Court confirmation,” Sen. Kamala Harris, DCalif., the Democratic vice presidential candidate, tweeted Saturday.
“At this point, so while I’m not facing imminent homelessness, my daughter will be going to college in two years,” said Kryshka, the convention worker. He’s been relying on savings meant as his daughter’s college fund in addition to unemployment checks.
He said his daughter understands the family is in a tough situation.
“I think everybody realizes realizes how life has had to change because of a pandemic. When I spoke with my elderly parents, they were much more concerned about safety,” he said.
“For those in the live events industry, we were the first ones out and we’re definitely going to be the last ones back in,” he added. Moscone Center now houses the city’s emergency operations center.
In late August, Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled a fourtiered, colorcoded reopening plan for nonessential businesses that had to shutter because of the pandemic. Concerts and conventions aren’t part of the state blueprint, suggesting their reopening is on the other side of the health emergency altogether.
During a news conference in April, the governor said live events like concerts and convention won’t be happening until next fall.
“Larger gatherings, conferences, concerts, sporting events ... when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility,” Newsom said. “I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically, we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”