Prop. 16 trailing despite support for racial justice
The wave of public support for a racial justice movement after the killing of George Floyd in May isn’t translating to the ballot box in California, as a proposition that was intended to address racial inequities is on shaky ground.
Supporters initially thought Proposition 16, which would reinstate affirmative action in public university admissions and government hiring and contracting, would appeal to
Californians who were more open after Floyd’s death to the argument that systemic racism has held down Black and brown people in the U. S.
But the measure, which would overturn the ban on granting preferences by race and sex that California voters approved in 1996, is trailing. Half of likely voters oppose Prop. 16, while 37% support it and 12% remain undecided, according to a poll released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California.
Prop. 16 campaign pollster David Binder is more optimistic, citing an internal poll that he said found the race in a dead heat.
But even a close race wasn’t what state legislators envisioned in June when they voted overwhelmingly to ask Californians whether to strip language from the state Constitution prohibiting programs that were designed to admit more Black and brown students to the University of California and California State University, and to help nonwhite businesses get government contracts.
Assemblywoman Shirley Weber, DSan Diego, who had introduced the proposal in March, said video of a Minneapolis police officer kneeling for nearly nine minutes on Floyd’s neck would help make the case that Black people are the victims of embedded racism. Polls indicated that Californians agreed — a survey in July by the public policy institute found that nearly 70% of respondents supported the Black Lives Matter movement.
“I was so grateful I didn’t have to convince you racism is real because George Floyd did that,” Weber told Assembly members in May as she asked them to put Prop. 16 on the ballot. “We have to admit it is real, and it is there and it is present and it impacts the lives of everyone in this country.”
It is not the only measure on the ballot with a racial justice focus that is in a tough fight. Another is Proposition 25, which asks voters whether to uphold a 2018 state law eliminating cash bail. Advocates say cash bail is part of a system that keeps a disproportionate number of poorer, nonwhite defendants in jail for long periods awaiting trial. While there has been little public polling on Prop. 25, campaign insiders say the race is close.
Sam Lewis, executive director of the Anti-Recidivism Coalition and a supporter of Prop. 25, is concerned that the racial justice movement around Floyd’s death “just becomes a moment.”
“There’s a time when a moment becomes a movement,” Lewis said. “Here we are again. This can be a moment. Or it can become a movement with tangible results.”
Prop. 16 is facing a tougher climb even though it is supported not only by Democratic leaders including Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sen. Kamala Harris, but also by the California Chamber of Commerce — which tends to take conservative positions on ballot measures.
Part of the challenge is that voters find Prop. 16’ s language confusing, said Anäis López, an analyst at the polling firm Latino Decisions.
In a poll of Latino registered voters that the firm did in August, only 39% of respondents understood that Prop. 16 would reinstate affirmative action, while 32% thought it would block race from being used and 29% said they didn’t know what it would do.
“The title, once you read the ballot, it’s not clear,” López said. “Many think ( affirmative action) is already in place — because it is in place in 42 other states.”
In focus groups, Lopez said, younger Latinos who grew up without affirmative action “would ask, ‘ What is the catch?’ They’re afraid that it will be used against them.”
Prop. 16 supporters acknowledge that they need to educate many younger voters on what affirmative action is. Nearly 80% of current registered voters didn’t vote on the 1996 measure that banned it, according to the campaign.
“Baby Boomers and Generation X lived with the official policy of affirmative action until it was stricken off the books in 1996,” said former state Senate leader Kevin de León, who campaigned for affirmative action as a young activist 25 years ago. “Now the challenge is, how do you connect this highly technical government term — affirmative action — to everyday folks in California, especially in a political environment that demands equity and justice?
“At the moment,” said de León, now a member of the Los Angeles City Council, “there is a huge disconnect, to the frus Affirmative