Mayor Michael Tubbs, after a rapid rise in California and Democratic politics, trails in his bid for a second term.
Three months ago, Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs was celebrating the release of an HBO documentary about his life and leadership in the San Joaquin Valley city. This week, he’s trailing in his bid for a second term.
The race is not yet called. But a loss would be an unexpected setback for the 30yearold Democrat, who has attracted the kind of publicity that comes to few local politicians — including an early endorsement by Oprah Winfrey and national attention for his experiment with a guaranteed income.
However, the expansive vision that has earned Tubbs a reputation far beyond Stockton may not hold the same resonance in the city of 310,000, which has struggled with poverty, homelessness and high crime for decades.
“People have a deep distrust of city hall and downtown Stockton,” said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic political consultant who has worked on mayoral and legislative campaigns in and around Stockton, but was not involved with this year’s race. Tubbs “launched a lot of initiatives that are forwardthinking and probably will have some impact. But people look around and don’t see that today.”
Tubbs trailed Republican Kevin Lincoln, the executive pastor at a local church, on Friday by about 2,000 votes, or 52% to 48%.
The gap has widened since election day, but with tens of thousands of mail ballots outstanding, Tubbs said he is confident he would ultimately prevail.
“It’s just going to be like what we saw in Pennsylvania,” he said. “Once all the votes are counted, it’s not going to be as close as people assume that it is.”
Tubbs was elected to Stockton’s City Council shortly after graduating from Stanford University, and won the mayorship four years ago with 70% of the vote. The victory made him Stockton’s first Black mayor and the youngest mayor of a large city in the country, while his biography — he was raised by a single mother in impoverished south Stockton while his father served a life sentence — made him an instantly compelling figure.
With $ 3 million in philanthropic support, he announced a pilot program in 2017 to give 125 Stockton residents an extra $ 500 a month for 18 months. The demonstration of a concept known as universal basic income grabbed the spotlight when it went into effect last year, in the midst of Democrat Andrew Yang’s presidential run on a similar platform.
But his drive to reimagine the community has not been universally popular. Tubbs championed a violenceprevention program that rewards atrisk youth for staying out trouble, which critics quickly dubbed “cash for criminals.” He abandoned a plan to sell a public golf course for potential housing development after residents objected.
Tubbs has also clashed with the City Council this year over proposals to mandate face coverings during the coronavirus pandemic and build an emergency homeless shelter. The city’s police union campaigned against him after he supported protests against police violence over the summer.
Lincoln, a veteran of the Marine Corps and the private sector, is another young upstart — he just turned 40 and has never held elected office. He is Black and Latino in a city where those groups make up more than half the population.
Lincoln said Tubbs had not listened to the concerns of Stockton residents on homelessness and safety.
“If they don’t feel like they’re being taken care of, they’ll go in another direction,” he said. “My message has been about public service first before politics.”
If Tubbs loses, he would be Stockton’s fourth straight oneterm mayor.
“Stocktonians are maybe a bit restless or dissatisfied with what doesn’t happen during a particular fouryear term,” said former Mayor Ann Johnston, who served from 2009 to 2013, overseeing the city’s declaration of bankruptcy and a spike in crime during the economic recession.
She said Tubbs had done an “excellent job” improving the city’s image and focusing on underserved communities in south Stockton, but acknowledged that he has not always been able to convince the public of the value of his efforts.
“Mayor Tubbs has had to deal with some negativity due to the focus on programs that the average person didn’t always understand,” she said.
Tubbs said that in a year rocked by the pandemic, protests and a contentious presidential election, it has been challenging to correct what he called flawed perceptions about his accomplishments. Rates for many crimes have dropped in Stockton, for example, even as Tubbs was accused of pursuing policies that made the city less safe.
“I think the final vote total will show that the majority of Stocktonians agree with the direction the city is going,” Tubbs said. “In the anxiety of waiting for results, people are rushing to conclusions.”