A critical week for the pandemic
This week is putting Americans’ traditions — and their patience — to an unprecedented test. The coronavirus pandemic is surging across the nation right before a Thanksgiving holiday that is typically characterized by just about everything that increases the risk of exposure: air travel, large family gatherings, alcohol consumption and those hugs and spirited discussions that defy social distancing.
It’s also coming at a time when many Americans are feeling the fatigue of eight months of varying degrees of vacillating restrictions on their everyday activities. The prospect of a vaccine on the relatively near horizon could add to the temptation for people to let down their guard. This could be a dangerous moment for the path of the most severe pandemic in a century.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectiousdisease expert, has been warning that “we could really be in a difficult situation” if the citizenry fails to follow the recommendations of health experts.
The situation already is dire in many places. The number of California cases exceeded 13,000 three times last week; coronavirusrelated hospital admissions have risen 77% in the past two weeks, with a 55% bump in intensive care patients. In South Dakota, a state that has stubbornly refused to impose a mask requirement, hospitals are being overrun from the surge. Hardhit Los Angeles rolled out new restrictions that include an order for restaurants to shift to takeout, drivethrough and delivery only. On Monday, Pennsylvania became the first state to suspend the sale of alcohol at bars and restaurants on Thanksgiving eve.
As Fauci and other health officials have noted, the effects of the Thanksgiving holiday won’t be known for a week or two, with the virus having an incubation period of two to 14 days.
The danger signals are evident. While travel through San Francisco International Airport is 70% lower than last year, it is still the busiest since the pandemic alarms began to sound in March. Cable news stations have been showing video of crowded airports across the nation, including an unsettling scene from Phoenix’s Sky Harbor International Airport, with many travelers unmasked. It’s important to note that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found that most infections are spread by those who are not experiencing symptoms.
“If you look at the map of spread across the country, you can see the risk; it’s very visible,” Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said on “Fox News Sunday.” “And moving through airports or travel hubs, I think that will increase people’s risk.”
The CDC website offers guidance on Thanksgiving celebrations. It notes, of course, that “the safest way to celebrate
Thanksgiving is to celebrate at home with the people you live with.” It advises against travel. But it’s also realistic enough to present guidelines for those who would travel or bring together celebrants from multiple households: advising outdoor eating, mealpreparation and serving suggestions and having guests bring their own food and drink. They are worth checking out.
One of the other Thanksgiving traditions — the rush for bargains on Black Friday — will look a bit different this year. Many stores that had been opening right after dinnertime on Thanksgiving have moved back or curtailed their hours to prevent those mad dashes through the packed aisles. The prospect that those could become superspreader events gives new meaning to the term “buyer beware.”
There is no joy in these calls for adaptation and restraint, but they are critical in preventing this from becoming the Black Thanksgiving of a lethal pandemic.