According to the numbers, pandemic will be baby bust

In midMarch, as shelterinplace began, I wondered if the pandemic would last as long as a voyage to Mars, nine months or so, oneway. This week, we’ve hit that milestone.

A part of me knew our travails might actually last as long as a round trip, which, as it turns out, isn’t as simple as doubling the interplanetary travel time. Given our existing rocket technology, you’d apparently have to wait three months on the Red Planet until Earth and Mars return to the right launch position. All in all, it would take about 21 months to go to Mars and back, which puts us into December 2021 to emerge from the pandemic.

Even with the vaccines rolling out, I suspect my family might not get it until the spring or summer. Then we’ll have to wait until it’s widespread enough for herd immunity. All told, life may not return to “normal” until the end of next year — about when that theoretical rocket would return from Mars.

Still, nine months is a time period freighted with significance, for it’s roughly the length of time for a human pregnancy. In the spring, I’d joked with friends, wondering if there might be a baby boom nine months later, what with people trapped at home, seeking comfort in the arms of a partner at the end of the world and with limited “entertainment” options.

But it turns out, we can expect the reverse. According to a longitudinal study at the Kinsey Institute, people have been having less sex during the pandemic; the greater your stress and loneliness, the more those fires get dampened. The purported birth spikes after a blizzard or blackout don’t hold up statistically, according to demographers who predict there could be up to a halfmillion fewer births around the world.

The Brookings Institute think tank based its forecast on economic studies of fertility behavior in times of economic uncertainty and insecurity, as well as data from the Great Recession and the 1918 Spanish Flu. If the labor market remains weak, the number of births may drop still more.

“We expect that many of these births will not just be delayed — but will never happen,” according to the report.

A survey of women in late April and early May by the Guttmacher Institute — a sexual and reproductive health research and policy organization — found that 40% of respondents had changed their plans for when and how many children they wanted to have because of the COVID19 pandemic. The preferences varied by race, income and sexual orientation, with those belonging to groups who have suffered systemic health and social inequalities — Black and Latino women — reporting the greatest changes.

Evidence is starting to trickle out: November birth data from a few states reflect declines, and there’s been a drop in online searches related to pregnancy and weddings, said Laura Lindberg, a principal research scientist at Guttmacher.

Much uncertainty still looms, but with the vaccine, and Joe Biden getting sworn in as president in about a month, I asked Lindberg whether demographic trends might shift again.

“The vaccine solution is a solution to our health issues, but it’s not going to immediately solve health or economic issues,” she said. “We may find that economic divide that already existed in country just gets larger.”

However, she added. “I don’t want to make it seem inevitable. Familyfriendly policies could help Americans.”

Nine months are significant for another reason: Three seasons have passed, spring, summer, and autumn. Now we are on the verge of winter, with the upcoming solstice on Dec. 21.

It will be the shortest day of the year, but thereafter, the days will start to get longer again. As it’s often been said, it’s always darkest before the dawn.

November birth data from a few states reflect declines, and there’s been a drop in online searches related to pregnancy and weddings.