battleground districts, choice puts GOP in bind
If the California Republican Party has a future statewide, it will likely be in officeholders like Reps. Mike Garcia and Young Kim — relatively young people of color who were elected in battleground districts by playing up their moderate positions rather than tying themselves to President Trump.
But they and a handful of other Republicans in similar districts face a precarious vote as the House barrels toward impeaching Trump for a second time: Support impeachment and writeoff Trump backers, who are now all but synonymous with the RepubIn
lican Party, or vote against it and risk alienating moderate voters they will need to win reelection in 2022.
Nearly two in three California voters supported Joe Biden, and the presidentelect won Kim’s Orange County district and Garcia’s district, which straddles Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
In the days since last week’s attack on the U. S. Capitol, California Republicans have shown signs that they’re splitting on how to navigate a Trumpless future.
After police cleared the proTrump militants who took over the Capitol on Wednesday, Garcia and Kim differed on whether to certify the Electoral College results that gave Biden the presidency. Garcia opposed certifying the results — a position that backed Trump’s lies that the election was “stolen” from him. Kim supported the results, in line with five dozen court rulings that found the election results to be valid.
Garcia, RSanta Clarita ( Los Angeles County), explained his vote by saying that “while I am a federalist, I believe there is enough evidence of compromised processes and breakdowns in election integrity by certain state legislatures that do in fact warrant a closer examination.”
Kim, RFullerton, supported certification because “Congress does not determine which electors states send, and we must respect the authority of the states.”
Their dilemma is emblematic of the California Republican Party’s struggle to return to relevance statewide. No GOP candidate has been elected to statewide office since 2006. In the past two U. S. Senate elections, no Republican so much as survived the primary.
The party is reduced to a few regional strongholds in rural areas and Orange and San Diego counties — it is all but nonexistent in the Bay Area and metro Los Angeles. But in those regional strongholds, the need for Republicans to stick to Trump is still strong. One of the new Republican House members, Rep. Jay Obernolte of Big Bear Lake ( San Bernardino County), barely had to worry about Democratic opposition in November — he defeated his challenger by nearly 15 points.
Fred Whitaker, chair of the GOP in Orange County, is confident that Kim and GOP Rep. Michelle Steel of Seal Beach, another Asian American who flipped a Democratic seat in the county in November, will both vote against impeachment. Kim and Garcia did not respond to requests for comment Monday, nor did Steel, who missed the Electoral College votes after testing positive for the coronavirus and may also miss the impeachment debate.
Whitaker likewise expects Garcia and every other Republican in the California delegation to vote against impeachment.
“There are a lot of supporters of the president in these districts,” he said.
“I don’t think it’s a tough vote,” Whitaker said. “Impeachment requires a high crime or misdemeanor. I don’t believe anyone who is serious about unifying the country believes that anything that Donald Trump said on Jan. 6 actually incited violence.”
There is potential cover for California Republicans — some Republicans nationally have broken with Trump since the Capitol attack, including former Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s wife.
In her resignation letter to the department’s employees, Chao said that “our country experienced a traumatic and entirely avoidable event as supporters of the president stormed the Capitol building following a rally he addressed.”
But Whitaker said it was superfluous to try to remove the president when he was already leaving office.
“If you put an impeachment vote out there with just a few days before the end of his presidency, it looks like you’re kicking him out of office when you don’t need to,” Whitaker said. “And if you do, you’ll have a tremendous contingency of people who will feel that they are being canceled as well.”
Whitaker said any punishment for Trump should be left up to voters. If they don’t want him to run for president in 2024, they can show their displeasure by voting against him then, Whitaker said.
“Impeaching him now could turn him into a martyr,” he said.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday shows that support remains for Trump among Republicans nationally, despite last week’s attack. While 52% of respondents overall thought Trump “should be removed from office,” 87% of Republicans said he should not be.
Republicans won’t want to take a vote that could alienate nearly 90% of their base.
“There are a lot of voters who are saying, ‘ This thing ( Trump’s term) is almost over. Let’s let it slide,’ ” said Tim Malloy, a polling analyst with Quinnipiac.
But GOP House members from California representing battleground areas with large numbers of Latino voters will have to take their opinions into consideration as well, said Anais Lopez, an analyst with the Latino Decisions polling firm.
A Latino Decisions poll taken shortly before Election Day last year found that 16% of Latino Republican voters in California felt that Trump did not care about them. An additional 7% said that Trump was “hostile” toward them.
Latinos also hold the key to Republicans’ future statewide, given that they make up nearly 40% of the state.
“These Republican ( House members) should be careful when they vote on impeachment, especially in a district that was really close,” Lopez said. “They would risk losing some votes. Latinos are very protective of democracy.”
California Republicans will likely follow the lead of House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, who reportedly is floating the idea of censuring Trump instead of impeaching him.
McCarthy said Monday, “An impeachment at this time would have the opposite effect of bringing our country together when we need to get America back on a path toward unity and civility.”
Tellingly, McCarthy’s statement did not express support for Trump.