3he pandemic and the politics
There’s no doubt that Gov. Gavin Newsom’s vow Tuesday to fully reopen California’s economy was driven by data. The question is how much of it was polling data. Newsom’s emphasis on rapid reopening comes as he is fending off a recall attempt, which likely explains why his confidence about the waning coronavirus risk is getting ahead of statistics and experts. The politics of the moment favor lifting the state’s lifesaving but controversial restrictions on business activity, which helped propel the recall effort from the fringes to the mainstream.
Granted, the governor has legitimate reasons to moderate the restrictions, too. The state has the nation’s lowest rate of positive coronavirus tests, new cases have subsided to presurge levels, and over 13 million Californians have received at least one shot of a vaccine. Newsom also built caveats into his announcement at City College of San Francisco’s vaccination site, advising continued maskwearing and other precautions while promising to scrap his colorcoded tier system in two
months if progress continues.
But reasons for caution persist. States in the Northeast and Midwest have seen new infections climb sharply in recent weeks, and California’s have stopped falling. The Bay Area saw a nearly 9% increase in new cases last week compared with the week before, while the statewide figure ticked up 1%, all of which predated any effect of Easter weekend gatherings. About twothirds of Californians have yet to receive a vaccine dose, and viral variants could compound the risk.
Experts are divided over the possibility of a fourth wave of infections ahead of herd immunity. Some local health officials are wisely advising residents to refrain from indoor dining and other highrisk activities even though they’re allowed.
The governor’s latest easing of restrictions could prove to be part of a pattern of rushed reopenings that he has acknowledged. Even before Tuesday’s pledge to drop the colorcoded system, Newsom had revised its rules to allow counties to progress through the tiers more quickly, repeating the goalpostshifting that preceded previous surges.
It would be a grave error to put lives at unnecessary risk on the cusp of widespread inoculation. Californians should join the governor in welcoming
the end of economic restrictions when it’s safe to do so, but the end of the pandemic won’t necessarily coincide with the beginning of the campaign.