Recall of Newsom all but certain for ballot

SACRAMENTO — Critics of Gov. Gavin Newsom have collected enough signatures to force a recall election, kicking off a lengthy procedural march to a likely referendum later this year on the firstterm governor.

The Secretary of State’s Office reported Monday that organizers had submitted 1,626,042 valid signatures from California voters to recall Newsom, about 130,000 more than they need to qualify for the ballot. That number is likely to increase, as county election officials have until the end of the month to finish reviewing petitions and more than 136,000 signatures have yet to be checked.

Although a special election on whether to remove Newsom from office is now all but certain, it remains unclear when exactly it will take place. It will

be several months until the state sets a date, probably for sometime in November, and the governor’s supporters have one final longshot opportunity to stop it.

“Game on,” said Anne Dunsmore, campaign manager for Rescue California, one of the groups behind the recall drive. “They said it couldn’t be done, now they’re saying he can’t be recalled. I say we proved him wrong once, now we’re going to prove him wrong twice.”

Before calling an election, the state must certify the recall petition. The process to do that was extended several years ago by Democrats in the Legislature in an unsuccessful attempt to keep one of their own from being recalled. The change added several months during which the state reviews the election’s cost election and people who signed the petition can rescind their signatures.

The signature withdrawal period, which was triggered by organizers reaching the qualification threshold, now gives voters 30 business days to let their local election officials know that they’d like to remove their names from the recall petition.

This could theoretically push the recall back below the signature threshold, though it’s highly unlikely given the significant buffer that organizers have built. Nor are the names of voters who signed the petition public information, making it expensive and difficult for Newsom’s backers to find them at all.

The Newsom campaign has said it does not plan to pursue the strategy, but an outside group led by former state Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata launched an independent effort this month dubbed Stop the Steal. The group has demanded that the recall campaign turn over copies of the petitions it filed and threatened to sue for access, a tactic that recall organizers have dismissed as illegal and bullying.

Once the withdrawal period ends June 8, counties have 10 more business days to report the number of rescinded signatures back to the secretary of state. Assuming the recall is still eligible for the ballot, the state Department of Finance then gets 30 business days to estimate how much the election will cost, and the Joint Legislative Budget Committee has another 30 calendar days to review the estimate.

Only then is the recall certified. At that point, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis must set an election date 60 to 80 days down the road, which could push the vote into November.

The ballot would ask Californians two concurrent questions: Should Newsom be removed from office, and, if so, who should replace him?

Newsom could not run as a replacement candidate. If he is recalled by simple majority vote, the replacement candidate with the most votes would become governor, even if that person receives less than 50%. There would be no runoff between the top two candidates.

Several Republican rivals have already announced plans to challenge the governor, including former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, 2018 gubernatorial candidate John Cox and former Sacramentoarea Rep. Doug Ose. On Friday, former Olympic gold medalist and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner became the latest Republican to enter the race.

No major Democratic candidates have jumped in yet. Democratic leaders have publicly discouraged them from running, arguing that it would undermine Newsom by giving California’s heavily Democratic electorate a viable alternative to support.

But Newsom seems wellpositioned to survive the recall. Recent polling by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 53% of likely voters surveyed approved of Newsom — more than double thenGov. Gray Davis’ popularity at a similar point before his recall in 2003.

Newsom has taken a similar line of defense as Davis so far, casting the recall drive as a “power grab” by Republicans. His campaign is trying to link the challengers to former President Donald Trump, who overwhelmingly lost California in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.

“This election will be about two different visions for California,” Juan Rodriguez, campaign manager for Newsom, said in a statement. “The Republican recall — backed by partisan, proTrump and farright forces — threatens our values as Californians and seeks to undo the important progress we’ve made under Gov. Newsom.”