49ers’ QB choice will say much about Shanahan
There’s an old line in NFL coaching and scouting circles: “It’s about the Jimmies and the Joes, not the X’s and the O’s.”
The point? It’s nice to have great play calls, but they won’t work if you don’t have the right players to execute them.
Just how much 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan subscribes to that saying will become evident Thursday night. That’s when Shanahan uses the No. 3 pick to draft either a systemfit pocket pass
er, Alabama’s Mac Jones, or two other quarterbacks, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, who could elevate his offense while joining a wave of successful young, mobile QBs such as Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Houston’s Deshaun Watson.
Daniel Jeremiah, a former scout with the Ravens, Browns and Eagles, says a selection of Jones will make a statement that Shanahan, when it comes to quarterbacks, isn’t all about the Jimmies and the Joes.
He would be saying, “‘I believe so much in the X’s and O’s,’ ” said Jeremiah, an NFL Network draft analyst. “‘I need somebody that can just see the game through my eyes and make those decisions.’ ”
Former NFL quarterback and current ESPN analyst Dan Orlosvky observes that Fields and Lance “will make more out of bad plays or plays when you lose the rep because of their physical talent. And they’ll be able to go above the X’s and O’s more than Mac Jones can. Mac will execute that offense at a high level more consistently.”
On March 26, the 49ers’ trade with the Dolphins, a blockbuster that allowed them to move up nine spots for a QB, revealed how they felt about incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo. Now, how they use that pick will reveal much about Shanahan.
If the 49ers traded two future firstround picks and a thirdrounder to ensure they could get Jones, it would be clear Shanahan views him as the quint essential quarterback to run his offense. At the price the 49ers paid, Shanahan couldn’t view Jones as just the next Kirk Cousins, the Vikings’ effective if not-elite QB who often is invoked as Shanahan’s ideal. Rather, Shanahan would have to see Jones as a pocketpassing machine, a quarterback closer to perennial Pro Bowl picks such as Drew Brees and Philip Rivers.
Orlosvky didn’t invoke those names. But he said the socialmedia conversation about Jones, a pick who would make some 49ers fans apoplectic, is wildly inaccurate.
“Mac Jones gets talked about like he’s just average,” Orlovsky said. “And I don’t think that. I think he’s really good. The tape shows that he’s really good. And I think his traits project him to be a really good player at the next level.
“I think San Francisco, if they take Mac Jones, they will win a lot of games with Mac Jones. At the end of the day, quarterbacking in the NFL has always been, and always will be, about: Do you throw it to the right guy when you’re supposed to throw it? And do you throw it exactly where it needs to be? And ( Jones) does that really, really, really well.”
Jeremiah acknowledged that there are some in the NFL who believe it would be an “arrogant decision” if Shanahan selected Jones, because it would suggest he has gotten carried away with confidence in his system. But even though Jeremiah thinks Lance should be the 49ers’ pick, he disagrees with that characterization of what picking Jones would represent. Why? Because of the success of Shanahan’s oftenimitated offense, which he views as the NFL’s best.
How would the conversation around the 49ers and Jones be different if Shanahan had the trophies to prove his pocket-passer system wins Super Bowls? Instead, Shanahan has two excruciating losses. The 49ers squandered a 10point, fourthquarter lead in February 2020 against Kansas City three years after the Falcons — with Shanahan as their offensive coordinator — wasted a 25point, thirdquarter lead against New England.
“The thing that's interesting is Kyle has that recent history of saying, ‘I've been in two Super Bowls, probably should have won two Super Bowls, running this offense and operating it with this style of quarterback,’ ” Jeremiah said. “And if Garoppolo doesn’t miss a throw, if (Atlanta’s) Matt Ryan doesn’t take a sack, then maybe he’s got two Super Bowl rings to verify that this is the right type of guy … to run this offense and win the ultimate prize.”
Of course, Garoppolo did miss the throw, overshooting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders on a welldesigned, wouldbe, 49yard gamewinner in the final minutes of Super Bowl LIV. Less than six minutes earlier, Mahomes began Kansas City’s comeback by launching a 44yard completion to wide receiver Tyreek Hill while under heavy pressure on 3rd-and-15.
The crunchtime contrast between Mahomes and Garoppolo was striking. To Orlovsky, it symbolized the value of a QB who can “go above the X’s and O’s.”
“And I wonder if Kyle kind of has that memory in his head going, ‘Wait, that team made a good play call and their player just made it a great play,’ ” Orlovsky said. “I made a great play call and my player didn’t make it. And I wonder if there’s that interest from him to go, ‘I’m really good. And my play calls and designs are great. But I want a guy to take them to the next level.’ ”
Shanahan has admitted he didn’t study Mahomes closely enough in 2017, when the 49ers had the No. 2 pick, because his plan was to sign Cousins in free agency the following year. Mahomes went No. 10 overall and Watson was selected two picks later.
Would picking Jones be a similar mistake? Jeremiah thinks Shanahan could have regrets, even if Jones leads the 49ers to a title.
“When you pair those up — an elite playcaller and a good quarterback, you can win a Super Bowl,” Jeremiah said. “An elite player and an elite playcaller? You can become a dynasty.”