Al Qaeda may be back 2 years after pullout, defense chief warns

WASHINGTON — An extremist group like al Qaeda may be able to regenerate in Afghanistan and pose a threat to the U.S. homeland within two years of the American military’s withdrawal from the country, the Pentagon’s top leaders said Thursday.

It was the most specific public forecast of the prospects for a renewed international terrorist threat from Afghanistan since President Biden announced in April that all U.S. troops would withdraw by Sept. 11.

At a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing, Sen. Lindsey Graham, RS.C., asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin

and Gen. Mark Milley whether they rated the likelihood of a regeneration of al Qaeda or the Islamic State in Afghanistan as small, medium or large.

“I would assess it as medium,” Austin replied. “I would also say, senator, that it would take possibly two years for them to develop that capability.”

Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, said he agreed.

“I think that if certain other things happen — if there was a collapse of the government or the dissolution of the Afghan security forces — that risk

would obviously increase, but right now I would say ‘medium’ and about two years or so,” Milley said.

Their responses underscored the overall military fears about the consequences of a complete, unconditional withdrawal. Military leaders over the past few years have pushed back against administration efforts — including at times by former President Donald Trump — to pull out of Afghanistan by a certain date, rather than basing troop numbers on security conditions.

Milley also acknowledged that a collapse of the government or takeover by the Taliban could have

broader impacts on the strides women have made in Afghanistan. And the military has said it will be far more difficult to collect intelligence on terror groups in the country, if there is no U.S. presence.

The Biden administration has acknowledged that a full U.S. troop withdrawal is not without risks, but argued that waiting for a better time to end U.S. involvement in the war is a recipe for never leaving, while extremist threats fester elsewhere.

“We cannot continue the cycle of extending or expanding our military presence in Afghanistan, hoping to create ideal conditions for the withdrawal, and expecting a different result,” Biden said, when announcing the withdrawal plan in April. He added, “It’s time to end America’s longest war.”

The U.S. invaded Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks on America, when the Taliban allowed al Qaeda safe haven in the country. The key goal of U.S and coalition troops since then has been to prevent a resurgence and another attack against America or other allies.