Where is delta variant surge hitting hardest in San Francisco?
The extracontagious delta variant has driven a recent surge in coronavirus cases nationwide, and San Francisco is no exception. Case rates have risen citywide this month, primarily among unvaccinated people.
The Chronicle looked at data from the San Francisco Department of Public Health to see where in the city these infections are occurring. The data shows that new cases are predominantly hitting residents who have suffered disproportionately from the virus since the pandemic began: Black and Latino people.
Our analysis found that from July 1 through July 10, ZIP codes in which at least 20% of residents identify as Black or Latino had an average of 7.9 new cases per 10,000 residents, compared with just 4.7 per 10,000 in ZIP codes where less than 10% identified as Black or Latino.
The ZIP code hit hardest so far by this new surge is 94124, which encompasses most of the Bayview neighborhood. The ZIP code, which is 52% Black and Latino, had 61 confirmed cases through July 10, more than any
other ZIP code in the city; it also has the highest per capita rate over that time period, at 17 new cases per 10,000.
In a news briefing Thursday, Mayor London Breed said that 28% of San Franciscans currently hospitalized with COVID19 are Black, despite Black people making up just 5.6% of the city’s population according to U.S. census estimates.
The fact that COVID19 is once again causing outsize harm to Black and Latino residents has alarmed and frustrated community leaders.
“We feel like we’re fighting for people’s lives right now,” said Dr. Monique LeSarre, executive director of the Rafiki Coalition for Health and Wellness. LeSarre’s organization works to reduce health inequities within the Black San Franciscan population.
LeSarre noted that vaccination rates of Black and Latino residents continue to lag those of white populations, largely because these communities tend to have less trust in traditional media and the medical establishment. While over 83% of ZIP code 94124’s residents have been fully vaccinated, LeSarre said Black and Latino residents still lag behind white San Franciscans citywide.
Currently, the health department’s data shows white San Franciscans lagging behind Latino residents. However, the data is not particularly robust because more than 75,000 people identified as “other” or “multiracial,” or their race is unknown.
“We think vaccination is the best prevention we have and can, in many and most cases, prevent death and dying,” LeSarre said. “We also know there will be a group of people that just won’t get vaccinated.”
Black and Latino residents who are unwilling to get vaccinated are at greater risk for both contracting the coronavirus and getting very sick from it, LeSarre said. They are more likely than white people to work in essential jobs, such as those in the service industry, that place them in proximity to many people on a daily basis.
Additionally, in the U.S., these groups — particularly Black people — have higher levels of preexisting conditions that make the likelihood of a severe COVID19 case higher, LeSarre said.
Because the Bayview and Hunters Point region was once home to an unusual number of factories and was formerly the site of a naval base housing ships contaminated with radioactive material, current and past industrial emissions and chemicals expose residents to more pollutants than most other San Franciscans, she said.
LeSarre said she hopes that in addition to continuing its vaccination outreach efforts, the city will streamline its messaging around public health measures — specifically by getting people to start wearing masks indoors again, which it recommended Friday along with other Bay Area counties.
“California took this whole thing and went with it and folks wanted to believe that we were in a new place, and we’re not — we’re still in a pandemic,” LeSarre said, referring to the statewide June 15th reopening. “We need to pull back.”