Bay Area diners keep bailing on reservations
The phone at San Francisco fine dining spot Nightbird rang at 5:01 p.m. on Wednesday. The people scheduled to arrive at 5:15 p.m. were calling to cancel because they'd just tested positive for the coronavirus.
Ten minutes later, the phone rang again. Another cancellation, also because of a positive test. Two more parties bailed that night — a third of Nightbird's
total reservations.
Concerns over the delta variant seem to be changing diner behavior, according to many Bay Area restaurant owners who are reporting a significant drop in business and a rise in canceled reservations. OpenTable data shows that dining is down 16% in San Francisco compared with July, with business as low as 66% below 2019 levels. That makes San Francisco one of the hardest-hit dining cities in the country, according to OpenTable.
At Nightbird, the last-minute cancellations resulted in a significant financial blow. The tasting menu costs $185, and all of the ingredients are purchased and prepped by the time the restaurant opens. While Nightbird charges people for the food when they cancel lastminute, most of these Wednesday diners fought the policy
because of the pandemic.
“If they had called in the morning or the night before, it could have been a lot less terrible,” owner Kim Alter said.
At some restaurants, the falling reservations are being made up in other ways. At San Francisco's China Live, for example, cancellations are up 15% over the past few weeks. But the Chinatown destination is able to welcome more walk-in customers, largely tourists wandering the neighborhood who might normally get turned away. It's a similar story at Berkeley's Fish & Bird Sousaku Izakaya, which is accepting more walk-ins than usual and also seeing rising interest in takeout.
Some say the return of the Bay Area's indoor mask mandate, enacted the first week of August, was the tipping point. Pacific Brewery immediately saw a 30% drop in business, and owner Helen Nasser-Elddin fears it'll only get worse if San Mateo County follows San Francisco in mandating proof of vaccination for many indoor activities. (Last week, San Mateo County officials told The Chronicle they weren't considering such a mandate.)
Business was roaring at new Indonesian restaurant Warung Siska until the mask mandate; then, co-owner Anne Le Ziblatt noticed a 15% slowdown. The Redwood City restaurant has shifted to offering more takeout.
“There were people eating there every week that we're not seeing every week anymore,” she said.
But some restaurant owners are hesitant to blame the drop on the delta variant. Laurie Thomas said early August is always slow at her two San Francisco restaurants, Terzo and Rose's Cafe, because of families taking vacations before school starts. Still, the no-shows, currently about 10% more frequent than usual, are “devastating,” she said.
“That's an indication people are changing their mind last-minute or someone in their party is getting cold feet,” she said.
Demand for outdoor dining, however, is high. Among reservations in San Francisco in the past six weeks, about 30% were for outdoor tables, according to OpenTable. That's much more than in other cities globally, which average about 14% of reservations being for outdoor seating during the same time period.
Ever since the pandemic began, health experts have cautioned that indoor dining is far riskier than outdoor dining — but they say the risk is even higher because of the more contagious delta variant. Fully vaccinated people are unlikely to get seriously ill from infection, but they could transmit the virus to others.
That's likely why the majority of reservations at Alley & Vine in Alameda, for example, have transitioned to outdoor tables over the past couple of weeks. And rising cancellations are coupled with increased requests to dine outside at Oakland's Ramen Shop.
“Once indoor dining opened, everyone was like, ‘We want to eat inside.' All of a sudden delta comes, and everyone wants to eat outside again,” said Ramen Shop co-owner Sam White. “And then in three weeks, smoke is going to come and everyone will want to go back inside.”
The quick changes are giving White “whiplash,” he said. Indeed, while California abandoned many restrictions with its tiered reopening plan in June, Nightbird's Alter said the combination of difficult diners, the staffing shortage and looming safety considerations has made the current landscape exceptionally tough.
“I don't think it's over for any of us,” she said. “When I talk to other restaurant people, everyone is having a harder time than they did last year.”