Analyzing vote: Trump influence played role and likely will again
WASHINGTON — Democrats escaped an existential crisis in Tuesday’s recall election, with Gov. Gavin Newsom comfortably cruising to victory — as would be expected in the overwhelmingly blue state of California.
For Republicans, it wasn’t just losing that will cause self-reflection, but also who claimed the most support among Newsom’s would-be replacements: Conservative talk show host Larry Elder decisively lapped a field of moderate GOP contenders with more established political credentials.
Democrats started gloating before the sun had even risen in California on Wednesday that the outcome portends good things for their 2022 election prospects. But the reality is that it may reinforce just how strong the brand of former President Donald Trump remains in the Republican Party — even in a state like California.
One thing was agreed upon across party lines as the dust settled: The results were a drubbing.
“Newsom kicked our ass last night. The Democratic
“I have now become a political force ... and I’m not going to leave the stage.” Larry Elder, talk show host
machine kicked the Republican machine’s ass,” said Doug Ose, a businessman and former Republican congressman who pulled out of the recall election after suffering a heart attack.
Ose, who endorsed Assembly Member Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, after leaving the race, gave Newsom credit for winning but also lamented that Republicans rallied behind a flawed candidate in Elder.
“I just think that substance matters in politics. I get the flash and the bling and all that stuff, but substance matters,” Ose said. “Both sides of the aisle right now suffer from a lack of substance, and I don’t think that serves California well . ... I’m very discouraged about the direction we’re headed.”
But the Republican electorate disagreed with Ose, fully embracing Elder. Though close to half of voters skipped the ballot question about replacement candidates, among those who did, around 47% chose Elder in incomplete results. Among total ballots, Elder’s share of the vote was closer to 26%. Moderate candidates with supposed crossover appeal attracted few voters; former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer got just 8.6% of the replacement vote and less than 5% support from the total electorate.
Democrats point to the Trumpification of the Republican Party as evidence they will win midterm elections in California and elsewhere.
President Biden on Wednesday released a statement declaring Newsom’s victory his own, pointing to voters’ validation of the governor’s pandemic control policies.
“This vote is a resounding win for the approach that he and I share to beating the pandemic: strong vaccine requirements, strong steps to reopen schools safely and strong plans to distribute real medicines — not fake treatments — to help those who get sick,” Biden said.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, who chairs the Democrats’ House campaign arm, touted favorable outcomes in swing districts in California in a call with reporters Wednesday morning, though ballots are still being counted and are expected to edge toward Republicans with more in-person results. Maloney said the outcome foreshadows Democratic wins in the midterms next year.
“You couldn’t have had a better mouthpiece for the Trump brand than Larry Elder in that election, and he got his ass kicked,” Maloney said. “That should send a chill down the spine of Kevin McCarthy, who thinks he can do this toxic Trump stuff without the Trump turnout that papered over how bad that message is for voters in swing districts.”
But McCarthy, a Bakersfield Republican who leads his party in the House, may also be evidence of how enduring the Trump brand is, even in swing districts. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, said it’s a misconception that California’s blue politics means Republicans in the state are different from the national party. Partisan politics and name identification remain some of the most important voter influences in statewide elections there, and similar dynamics could play out for swing seats next year.
“Kevin McCarthy resides in one of the strongest Republican regions in California, which is the San Joaquin Valley,” DiCamillo said. “It defies the California image, but it doesn’t defy his constituency.”
McCarthy declined to comment.
Still, some California Republicans were not ready to accept Trump’s hold on their party. The Faulconer campaign circulated a memo from polling firm WPAi, which touts conservative endorsements on its website from Texas Sen.
Ted Cruz and Utah Sen. Mike Lee, arguing that Elder not only drove Democratic turnout to Newsom but also depressed Republican turnout.
Elder, meanwhile, pledged to remain a player in the state.
“I have now become a political force here in California in general, and particularly within the Republican Party, and I’m not going to leave the stage,” he told KMJ radio in Fresno on Tuesday.
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist who worked for former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, said it’s a “fallacy” to draw any national conclusions from the recall race, saying Republicans are still favored to flip the House next year. He also argued Elder won the Republican vote because of his media coverage, which also helped Newsom frame the race.
“If all of the Republican candidates received equal media time, we might be having a different conversation,” Heye said.
Elder was by far the dominant candidate on Fox News, which speaks to a predominantly Republican audience. According to Matt Gertz, a senior fellow at the liberal Media Matters for America group, Larry Elder had 24 interviews on Fox News — 17 of them in prime time — between announcing his candidacy and election day, while among three of his top rivals, there was just one appearance.
But both DiCamillo and fellow pollster Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California said the overwhelming predictor of votes in the recall was existing party leanings. They agreed that there are sparingly few actual swing voters left in California.
“People are so set in their ways right now,” Baldassare said. “Things that were said and done in the recall, at the end of the day, made very little difference in terms of people’s choices at the ballot . ... The most recognizable conservative figure on the replacement ballot who was most associated with the politics of the Republican Party over the last four years was the one who by far gained favor.”