Titans are the top seed, but competition is fierce
Mahomes is Mahomes; don’t count out Roethlisberger
The AFC wild-card round begins Saturday with the Raiders at the Bengals and the Patriots visiting AFC East foe Buffalo. On Sunday, the Steelers visit the Chiefs. Top-seeded Tennessee gets the opening-week bye.
1. TENNESSEE (12-5)
Why they’ll prevail: The Titans are healthier than they’ve been all season. They are 8-0 over the past four seasons under coach Mike Vrabel when having at least nine days to prepare for an opponent. QB Ryan Tannehill is coming off his best game of the season, matching his career high with four TD passes. Not only is Henry preparing to return, but WRs Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are hitting stride after battling through injuries. Only four NFL teams allowed fewer points than the Titans’ revamped defense, and their 43 sacks more than doubled their total from 2020.
Why they’ll derail: The Titans can be their own worst enemy. The offense starts too slowly, and they settle for too many field goals. K Randy Bullock has missed six fieldgoal attempts between 40 and 49 yards. Among playoff teams, only the 49ers (minus-4) and Raiders (minus-9) have a worse turnover margin than the Titans’ minus-3.
2. KANSAS CITY (12-5)
Why they’ll prevail: Patrick Mahomes. Do you need another reason? His prolific passing ability fundamentally changed the way defenses play the Chiefs, forcing them to use two-deep shell coverages on just about every snap. Mahomes still threw for nearly 5,000 yards with 37 TD passes. WR Tyreek Hill took advantage of all those throws under the coverage to set a franchise record with 111 receptions, and TE Travis Kelce had his fourth straight 1,000-yard season.
Why they’ll derail: The Chiefs’ defense, which has held five consecutive opponents to fewer than 10 points at Arrowhead Stadium, was an abject failure through the first six weeks of the season. They ranked near the bottom of the league in just about every statistical category. And while they have played like an entirely different team the past three months, there were signs of cracks in a late-season loss to Cincinnati that cost them a first-round bye and a nip-andtuck win at Denver to end the regular season.
3. BUFFALO (13-3)
Why they’ll prevail: While Josh Allen became Buffalo’s first player to top 4,000 yards passing and throw at least 30 TDs twice in his career, the Bills’ late-season run to clinch the AFC East was partially fueled by a re-emphasis on running the ball. After managing 495 yards rushing and two scores in Buffalo’s first 12 games, Devin Singletary combined for 375 yards rushing and five touchdowns (including one receiving) over the past five. Buffalo’s defense allowed the fewest total yards, fewest passing yards and fewest points in the NFL.
Why they’ll derail: The Bills padded their win total against non-playoff opponents and either rookie or journeymen QBs. Buffalo finished 7-2 against QBs with 16 or fewer career starts, including splitting two games against New England’s Mac Jones. Buffalo went 4-4 against more experienced starters, with losses against Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill and Carson Wentz.
4. CINCINNATI (10-7)
Why they’ll prevail: Dynamic young stars aren’t aware and don’t care about the team’s playoff futility in the past three decades (zero wins in the past seven postseason appearances). Second-year QB Joe Burrow is unflappable. He and rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase, his national championship teammate at LSU, shattered a host of franchise records. Chase and second-year WR Tee Higgins are masterful at 50-50 balls. Pro Bowl RB Joe Mixon, a Freedom-Oakley alum, is a powerful, relentless runner.
Why they’ll derail: Protecting Burrow has been an issue all season. Injuries have bitten into the offensive line depth, and the loss of veteran tackle Riley Reiff to an ankle injury last month was a big hit. Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times and chances are he’ll be on the run again in the playoffs, which could force him into critical mistakes. The defense was 26th in the league against the pass.
5. LAS VEGAS (10-7)
Why they’ll prevail: The strength of the Raiders all season has been a defensive line that has put relentless pressure on quarterbacks led by edge rushers Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue. Crosby led the NFL in pressures with 101, according to Pro Football Focus, and Ngakoue had a team-high 10 sacks. If they can maintain that level of play, it should take pressure off the secondary and keep the game close enough for Derek Carr and the offense, as well as clutch kicker Daniel Carlson, to pull games out at the end.
Why they’ll derail: The Raiders rebuilt their O-line this offseason and it hasn’t paid off. LT Kolton Miller has been a rock all season and C Andre James has improved. But rookie RG Alex Leatherwood, RT Brandon Parker and LG John Simpson have struggled both in run and pass blocking for most of the season. If that doesn’t improve, the Raiders will have a tough time putting up enough points to compete with some of the high-powered offenses in the postseason.
6. NEW ENGLAND (10-7)
Why they’ll prevail: Bill Belichick made the bold move to name rookie first-round pick Mac Jones the starting QB after he beat out 2020 starter Cam Newton in training camp. Patriots opened 2-4, but Jones grew up a lot during a subsequent seven-game winning streak. He also is playing alongside a defense that allowed just 17.8 points per game, ranking second in the NFL. The Patriots are tied for third in the NFL with 30 takeaways.
Why they’ll derail: As strong as the defense has played, the Patriots also have had a propensity to fall behind early in games. They are 8-1 this season when scoring points in the first quarter, but just 2-6 when they fail to do so. It will be a lot to ask a rookie QB in his first trip to the postseason to lead the team back if they fall behind.
7. PITSBURGH (9-7-1)
Why they’ll prevail: The Steelers may be the longest shot in the playoff field but in 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger they have a veteran leader who has two Super Bowl rings. The Steelers also have perhaps the most disruptive defensive player in the league in OLB T.J. Watt, whose 22½ sacks tied Michael Strahan’s single-season record. If Roethlisberger can summon one last bit of magic and Watt’s play can cover up some serious warts on a defense that ranks last against the run, maybe the Steelers can carve out a path to the Super Bowl much as they did 16 years ago as a sixth seed.
Why they’ll derail: The 2005 group happened to have the NFL’s third-ranked defense to turn to when things got tight. Not so much this time around. Only eight teams gave up more yards than the Steelers in 2021. Combine that with an offense that can be painful to watch at times as it tries to dink-and-dunk opponents to death and there’s a reason Pittsburgh is the longest shot in the 14-team playoff field.