Projecting future impact of two dynamic rookies
Moody, Kuminga on track to adopt important roles
OKLAHOMA CITY — The Warriors’ title hopes depend on Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, but that hasn’t stopped two rookies from getting plenty of attention.
Seldom does a day pass without chatter about Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga filling my Twitter mentions. That’s why, when I put out the call for this week’s Warriors mailbag, I wasn’t surprised to receive a question about their long-term outlook, among other queries.
@Chrisss_0711: What do you think is the ceiling for Moody and Kuminga?
It’s so hard to project what 19-year-olds will become a decade or so from now. Keep in mind: Just a couple of years ago, no one saw Jordan Poole becoming this big of a difference-maker by age 22.
But I will admit, what we’ve seen from Moody and Kuminga in recent weeks has been encouraging. They’re not just skilled; they have highlevel basketball IQs for their age — a necessity for the Warriors’ read-and-react system.
Moody doesn’t have near the upside of Kuminga because he’s not as physically gifted. But given where Moody already is as a defender and shooter, I believe he can become a key complementary player for a winning team for a long time. Think of him in the same “3-and-D” mold as Robert Covington.
As for Kuminga? His potential is almost limitless. It’s not ridiculous to think he could become a perennial All-Star and one of the league’s best two-way players. I’ve made this comparison before, but I really think he can follow a similar career trajectory as Jaylen Brown.
@Quiknole: Why do some people think that Golden State would lose to the Lakers if they get to the 7th seed, and GS stayed at 2? … I don’t get it.
I haven’t heard anyone say the Lakers would beat the Warriors in a best-of-seven series, but I have seen speculation that the Lakers could give Golden State a scare. I understand the logic: Despite their sub-.500 record, the Lakers are one of the league’s more talented teams when fully healthy.
I won’t count out LeBron James, even at age 37, come playoff time. But you must judge teams based off how they’ve looked, and the Lakers have been a bit of a mess — on both sides of the court. It’s clear to me that this just isn’t a roster built for a deep playoff run.
If the Warriors face the Lakers in the first round, I’d expect the Lakers to perhaps steal one game, two at most. But assuming Green is available, there’s no way that Golden State is seriously threatened by the Lakers.
@5NtsLUWxYohGrk8: What’s the current expectation for Wiseman? Will he come back this season and possibly contribute during the playoffs?
Every week I get asked about Wiseman, and every week I don’t have much more clarity on his situation. He participated in his first team practice Saturday since undergoing knee surgery nearly 10 months ago, but he has yet to get cleared for contact work.
That should happen soon. Then again, I’ve been saying that since November. Until Wiseman is finally cleared for contact, it’ll be tough to even guess when he could return to games.
The Warriors remain optimistic that he’ll come back at some point this season, but I don’t think anyone is banking on him being a factor in the playoffs. Wiseman showed as a rookie that he has a lot to figure out before he can be a helpful contributor at this level. Whenever he does return this season, he probably won’t have enough time to overcome a sizable learning curve and acclimate to new teammates.
@Brennan_Bass: Are we realistically going to offer Jordan Poole an extension ($80 million for four yearsish)? At some point, the luxury tax is unbearable. Wiggins, and his D, would have to go.
The Warriors would prefer for Poole not to hit free agency in summer 2023, which is why I think they’ll try to sign him to a contract extension. People who know far more about this sort of thing than I do have said he is a $20 million-a-year player.
To get a deal done, the Warriors probably would have to offer Poole somewhere in that four-year, $80 million range. That’s a lot for a team already staring down a $170 million luxury-tax bill. But, what other option do the Warriors have? They’re not about to let a player they drafted and developed leave, just as he is blossoming into a strong sixth man.
I understand why you think Wiggins, whose max contract ends in 2023, will be the odd man out. But based off what I’ve been told, the Warriors see both Wiggins and Poole as franchise building blocks. Expect Joe Lacob to continue setting payroll records in the name of chasing championships.
@KevinNguyen_89: How far could the Warriors make it if Draymond was out for the season?
First of all, I really don’t see that happening. Green told reporters recently that he hopes to return within three to four weeks. Even if the Warriors decide to be extremely cautious with him, I expect him to come back in time for the start of the playoffs in mid-April.
But in the unlikely scenario that he is done for the season, Golden State would be devastated. Don’t let the Warriors’ eight-game win streak fool you: They’re a far different team, on both ends of the floor, without Green.
If he isn’t available in the playoffs, Golden State could probably get past whichever team it’d face in the first round. I think it would be hard, though, for the Warriors to reach the Western Conference finals — much less the NBA Finals.
@Amyn12766708: Why don’t we get any Kenny Atkinson interviews? Would love to hear his perspective on the team.
I’ve tried to get a one-onone interview with Atkinson at least three times this season, but he has declined each time. My understanding is that he believes it isn’t his place as an assistant coach to get any of the spotlight.
I respect that, but I would still like to talk to him. Atkinson has been a crucial behind-the-scenes force for the Warriors this season. And that’s saying a lot, given that he couldn’t travel or sit on the bench for months because of a leg injury.
@mtnow_: Looney is about to be a free agent. What sort of money can he expect, and will the Dubs re-sign him?
If this season has shown us anything, it’s that Kevon Looney is a solid part of the Warriors’ long-term future. His stabilizing presence, both offensively and defensively, is a big reason why Golden State doesn’t feel the need to add another big man.
Perhaps the single most startling stat from this season is the fact that Looney has started all 53 games — five more than any other Warriors player. Even though Golden State is already deep into the luxury tax, I expect it to do whatever it must do to re-sign him this summer.
How much the Warriors will end up paying remains unclear. Looney, who turned 26 on Sunday, might have more value to Golden State than he’d have to any other franchise. And given that nothing about him is flashy, he probably won’t command as much money on the open market as some might assume.
In July 2019, after playing an important role for a Finals team, Looney signed a threeyear deal with the Warriors worth $15 million. His next contract should be bigger, but I don’t expect it to be more than $8 million per year.