Garoppolo trade options dwindling
The NFL doesn’t seem too interested in Jimmy Garoppolo, but The Chronicle’s readers are.
Most of the questions for this week’s mailbag were about the 49ers’ still-nottraded quarterback, which wasn’t a surprise given Monday’s events. There was a strong sense a deal involving Garoppolo wasn’t imminent after the Colts filled their QB void by trading for Matt Ryan, the Saints retained Jameis Winston and the Falcons signed Marcus Mariota.
And that, of course, left the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hinds Community College as the last remaining teams in the QB market in North America.
But seriously, folks, a few possibilities remain for the 49ers to get something in return for the QB whose surgically repaired throwing shoulder — surprise! — hasn’t been a selling point.
Let’s begin with the most intriguing potential scenario (some questions have been edited for length, grammar and/or clarity):
@TreeBak46: Let’s say Seattle emerges as the only spot for Garoppolo. Would the 49ers trade with the Seahawks? Would the Seahawks want Garoppolo?
The 49ers made a statement about their feelings for Garoppolo, the QB, last year when they invested three firstround picks in Trey Lance less than 14 months after Garoppolo started in a Super Bowl.
And they would make a similar statement if they dealt Garoppolo to a reeling division rival that’s currently staring at a season with Drew Lock as its starter.
Teams don’t typically trade QBs inside their division because they have to play that team at least twice a season. But the 49ers presumably wouldn’t hesitate to deal Garoppolo if they didn’t view him as being a potential come-back-to-hauntthem, difference-maker in Seattle.
And if they did think sending Garoppolo to the Pacific Northwest would give the Seahawks a boost? It’s fair to wonder if the barren trade market and their growing desperation to get decent compensation for Garoppolo would tip the scales to a trade.
As far as the Seahawks, who insist they aren’t rebuilding after trading franchise QB Russell Wilson and releasing All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner, Garoppolo would seem to be a comfortable fit for defensive-minded head coach Pete Carroll.
Carroll’s affinity for winning with a strong ground game and a rugged defense (i.e. Not Letting Russ Cook) was reportedly a major reason Wilson grew restless in Seattle. Garoppolo, who is familiar with running out the clock instead of trying to drive into field-goal range before halftime, is well-suited for the caretaker role Carroll prefers.
Finally, a Garoppolo-to-Seahawks deal would be unusual, but not unprecedented. Philadelphia traded Donavan McNabb to Washington in 2010. And New England dealt Drew Bledsoe to the Bills in 2001.
@changy47: If both are healthy, who’s starting in Week 1: Garoppolo or Lance?
I pledged to walk to Waxahachie earlier this month if the 49ers signed freeagent wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who, bless him, signed with the Chiefs. And I will now pledge to walk to Winnemucca if Garoppolo is still on the roster in Week 1.
As a practical matter, the 49ers will reach a point at which they will need the significant salary cap space a trade or release of Garoppolo would create. They presently have about $3 million in cap space, but the first wave of free agency is over and their next major roster additions may not come until the draft in late April.
That is, there’s no urgency to move Garoppolo now. But there will be by late July just before the start of training camp. By that time, they will want to have signed their draft class (cost estimate: $7 million) and locked up bluechippers Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel with contract extensions that will make your head spin.
In theory, the 49ers could perform more financial gymnastics — restructuring contracts and the like — to create the needed space. However, there’s also the matter of doing right by Garoppolo — and Lance.
Garoppolo could be medically cleared by the start of training camp and will want to be with a new team at that point. Those conspiracy theorists who have surmised Garoppolo purposely sabotaged his trade market by delaying his shoulder surgery are failing to understand: Garoppolo doesn’t want to be with a team that’s made it clear it’s moving on.
Garoppolo can rehab away from the team facility during the spring, avoiding an awkward dynamic with Lance. The 49ers won’t be helping Lance if Garoppolo returns and is looming over his shoulder when training camp begins.
@JacobCHatch: What is your gut feeling on how the Garoppolo situation will end?
Total guesswork: He will be traded to the Texans, for a 2023 third-round pick, before training camp.
Houston, in rebuilding mode, appears kind of content to see if QB Davis Mills is their long-term answer this season. But perhaps general manager Nick Caserio, who spent three-plus seasons with Garoppolo in New England, would be intrigued by Garoppolo, at a lower asking price, and the chance to be more competitive in 2022.
Another scenario: Carolina could use the No. 6 pick on a QB — let’s say Liberty’s Malik Willis — and might eye Garoppolo as the ideal starter/mentor in 2022 for their dual-threat rookie with 23 college starts and a small-school pedigree (is this sounding familiar?) who could benefit from a redshirt season.
A complicating factor in a deal with the Panthers is the presence of quarterback Sam Darnold, who will earn $18.58 million fully guaranteed this season. Carolina would likely need to trade him — good luck with that — before adding Garoppolo and his $26.9 million salary.
Is trading Garoppolo to the Texans or Panthers (combined 2021 record: 9-25) doing right by him? Perhaps not, but Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery was an unforeseen complicating factor. He’d likely be relieved for the saga to end and have a chance to be one of 32 starting QBs in 2022.