Trading for Gobert unlikely both financially, logistically
MEMPHIS — Trade rumors don’t stop just because the playoffs are here, which is why I wasn’t shocked to see Rudy Gobert-to-Warriors speculation on my Twitter feed in the leadup to Game 2 at FedEx Forum. Below are my thoughts on a potential Gobert move, as well as my answers to pressing matchup-related questions about Golden State’s second-round series against the Grizzlies:
@ElysiumGY: Do you think there’s any validity to the Rudy Gobert trade rumors? Is it possible without getting rid of an important piece?
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said on a podcast recently that Utah could explore trading Gobert this summer for Andrew Wiggins. But just for payroll reasons, that doesn’t seem like a viable move for the Warriors. Wiggins is set to make $33.6 million next season, then become an unrestricted free agent in summer 2023. Meanwhile, Gobert is due $123 million over the next three years, with a player option of $46.7 million for 2025-26. Even if the Warriors wanted Gobert, they wouldn’t be willing to take on that much salary when they’re already deep into the luxury tax. There is also the fact that Gobert’s arrival would impede James Wiseman’s development. The Warriors are in a position where they almost have to pick up Wiseman’s $12.1 million team option for the 2023-24 season, so one of the worst things they could do would be bringing in an All-Star to take his minutes. It’s a nice thought, but there’s no way Golden State trades for Gobert.
@curtiefoo: Will we see Moody this postseason without it being a blowout?
I doubt it. Damion Lee and Juan Toscano-Anderson made meaningful cameos in Game 1 while Moses Moody stayed on the bench, which speaks to how buried Moody is on the depth chart. Steve Kerr wants players he can trust on the floor in the playoffs. And even though Moody wasn’t mistake prone this season, he is still a rookie. The big reason Kuminga is ahead of Moody on the depth chart is because he’s so athletic. Kuminga can make up for most mistakes just by playing hard; Moody doesn’t have that luxury.
@play0ff_st3ph: Do you foresee Kerr utilizing Kuminga more in this series?
Yes. Kuminga looked pretty good in the 15 minutes he logged during Game 1. Though he was up and down defensively, he’s a capable rebounder who excels in transition — both important traits to match up against the Grizzlies.
I don’t know how much Kuminga will play the rest of the series, but you’ve got to think he receives some meaningful minutes. His blend of speed and size warrants it.
@rdhaw85: Regardless of the outcome of these playoffs, what are the front office’s plans for Andrew Wiggins? Are they willing to lose him for free in 2023 or trade him for a cheaper expiring contract in a salary dump involving picks? And what are the plans around GP2?
If Wiggins is a key factor on a championship team, the Warriors might have a tough time parting with him. But ultimately, Golden State probably still needs to consider moving him. As I explained in February, the Warriors’ payroll is about to become unwieldy.
Even though Golden State is worth an estimated $5.6 billion, majority owner Joe Lacob is bound to reach his breaking point soon. Unloading Wiggins’ contract before he hits free agency in summer 2023 seems like the most palatable option. Given that he is fresh off an All-Star-starter selection, he should bring back a decent trade package. Stockpiling draft picks would be far preferable than just letting him leave for nothing in free agency. As far as Gary Payton II? His future with the Warriors could become clearer in coming days. As I wrote last week, he is expected to command offers in unrestricted free agency this summer between $5 million and $10 million per year.
If he continues to start and close playoffs games, that range would rise. The problem for the Warriors is that they only have Payton’s early Bird rights and not his full Bird rights, which means they can’t offer him more than $10.9 million next season. It’s possible that some teams could offer him north of $11 million. If that happens, Payton would have to make a difficult decision: Does he go for the money, or does he choose to be loyal to the team that helped him find his NBA niche?
@MRaucher: Why did Bob Myers put all his eggs in the Wiseman basket instead of signing a backup big when there was no guarantee Wiseman would contribute?
I don’t think Myers was going all-in on Wiseman when he decided not to sign another big man this season. Even if Wiseman were available, he almost definitely wouldn’t be in the playoff rotation — a fact Myers recognized months ago. The Warriors knew they’d lean heavily on small-ball lineups in the postseason, which is a significant reason they felt comfortable not adding another prototypical center. All indications are that small-ball could still be a legitimate path to a title. Though the Warriors got outmuscled inside at times against Denver, they don’t have to face another big man the caliber of Nikola Jokic.