Giants’ case for, against signing top free agents

With baseball’s winter meetings set for next week in San Diego, the free-agent market is expected to turn into a wild shopping frenzy, and the San Francisco Giants are positioning themselves as a landing spot for some of the game’s elite players.

With ample needs, ample resources and ample payroll space, the Giants have vowed to make a splash in free agency. Here’s a look at 10 big-name free agents on their radar and the cases for and against signing them.

Aaron Judge The case for:

Ownership wants this man, badly. Not just to win games but to sell tickets. Attendance was disappointing in 2022 despite the Giants coming off a 107-win season, and the owners realize big names sell. Historically, the Giants have been a superstar-driven team, and they became mediocre once Buster Posey retired. Judge, the pride of Linden (San Joaquin County), would give the Giants offensive firepower and a marquee gate attraction.

The case against: Not much here except the fear of a bad contract in its final years. Judge turns 31 in April, and he could command more than $300 million. Also, there’s a feeling all this money would be better served on signing multiple players. The roster has enough issues that one man can’t solve them all.

Trea Turner

The case for: From a baseball standpoint, Turner arguably makes more sense than Judge because of his versatility.

Baseball-ops honcho Farhan Zaidi stressed the need to improve up the middle, and Turner’s only big-league starts have been at shortstop, second base and center field. Judge played mostly center in 2022 but is projected longterm to return to an outfield corner. Turner is such a good baserunner that his slides regularly are featured in game highlights.

The case against: Turner scuffled defensively at short in the postseason, but he’s fully capable to handle positions all over the diamond. He seems to feel more comfortable playing on the East Coast, so a major overpay might be required if he’s to join the Giants.

Carlos Rodón

The case for: Giants fans delighted in Rodón’s historic strikeout rate and would have loved to see the lefty pitch in a playoff series. The Giants’ strength was their rotation, which would take a big hit without Rodón. Last winter, the Giants didn’t ante up for Kevin Gausman, and they can’t keep letting elite starters get away.

The case against: The Giants are confident they can find a relatively cheap pitcher from outside and help turn him into a formidable starter, with Alex Cobb their latest example. That would allow them to concentrate mostly on beefing up the lineup.

Brandon Nimmo

The case for: Nimmo would be the answer in center and leadoff and wouldn’t be as costly as Judge or Turner, a nice fit for a team that Zaidi said needs to be more athletic. Nimmo has on-base prowess (.385 lifetime OBP) and led the league in triples with seven. If he were to man center, Mike Yastrzemski could move to right, where he excels at a higher level. That is, unless Mr. Judge is the right fielder.

The case against: Nimmo still could command $100 million-plus, a lot of money for someone who played more than 100 games just twice in seven years and is coming off his best season.

Carlos Correa

The case for: Correa, who turned 28 in September, is the youngest among the top four free-agent shortstops and he’s the best hitter, and a case could be made that he’d maintain star power at the position the longest. A benefit of signing Correa over Turner, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson is that the team signing him wouldn’t lose a draft pick; Correa wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer because he received one last year.

The case against: Though Correa has been a regular in the lineup in recent years, he appeared in only 60% of his teams’ games from 2017 to 2019. Just twice in eight years has he played 140-plus games. Then there’s his part in Houston’s signstealing scandal, which tainted his legacy and the Astros’ 2017 championship. Correa is now far removed from Houston and was lauded as a strong team leader last season in Minneapolis.

Cody Bellinger

The case for: The man is a brilliant center fielder and hit 47 home runs in his 2019 MVP season, and for the Giants to bring the decorated Dodgers outfielder to China Basin, they’d need to be convinced they could end his long-standing hitting funk. His agent, Scott Boras, is OK with a one-year deal so that Bellinger could prove himself and return to the market, the type of scenario the Giants desire. Similarly, Rodón (another Boras client) proved himself in his first year with the Giants and now will strike it rich on the open market.

The case against: The man batted .203 with a .648 OPS the past three years, continuing to live off a season in which he batted .305 with a 1.035 OPS. The Dodgers realize Bellinger might never hit again and non-tendered him, allowing him to walk. Imagine Turner and Bellinger both going from Dodger blue to orange and black. While we’re at it: Kenley Jansen, anyone?

Xander Bogaerts

The case for: He makes a nice fallback option if the Giants can’t get Turner or Correa. Bogaerts is durable and rarely comes out of the lineup. He received MVP votes for a fifth straight year and is a perennial .300 hitter in an era in which such consistent hard contact at the plate isn’t always given its due. In 2022, after years of so-so defense, he showed dramatic improvement.

The case against: It’s a decent bet Bogaerts won’t maintain that high level of defense, meaning he might not be playing shortstop much longer. His slugging percentage and OPS dropped three straight years, not a good trend.

Dansby Swanson

The case for: Swanson collected 25 homers, 96 RBIs and 18 steals and won his first Gold Glove. Like Bogaerts, he plays every day, missing just one game the past three years. It’s possible Swanson’s presence in San Francisco would prompt a position change for four-time Gold Glove shortstop Brandon Crawford. That’s also true with Correa. Not so much with Turner and Bogaerts.

The case against: High-strikeout, low-walk hitter. You wonder whether Swanson’s breakout year coming in his walk year is related and whether he’ll continue to be this good.

Jacob deGrom

The case for: As Klay Thompson would say, “Duh, man.” Of course, the top pitcher on the market makes sense for the Giants, who dig high strikeout-to-walk ratios, and deGrom’s is off the charts: 13.05 the past two years (248 K’s, 19 walks), which is darn near Eckersley-esque but from a starting pitcher. The Giants also dig short-term contracts, and deGrom might settle for one so long as he tops $40 million per year.

The case against: It’s a risk because deGrom is 34 and made less than half a full complement of starts the past two years, just 26 starts total. The Giants need more help with their offense than in the rotation, but as we recall from the 2006-2007 offseason, the Giants had all kinds of funny money to spend on a hitter but struck out across the board and settled for a pitcher named Barry Zito.

Kodai Senga

The case for: Zaidi sang Senga’s praises at the GM meetings, mentioning his 100 mph fastball and the possibility of making adjustments. The righthander, 29, posted a 1.94 ERA and impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio. He requires no posting fees and would be a cheaper alternative to Rodón and deGrom.

The case against: Nobody knows how a player’s numbers from another continent would translate in the big leagues, and that’s true for Senga. It would be tough to commit to him as a member of the 2023 rotation without a contingency plan.