Is Oakland more progressive than San Francisco?
The election earlier this month sparked the question: Why did San Francisco seem to elect more moderate leaders while Oakland turned to progressives?
Progressives in Oakland and Alameda County delivered strong results on Election Day, securing several high-profile seats. Candidates in the Oakland mayor’s race and City Council secured victories, as did a reform-minded district attorney.
Their wins stand in stark contrast to San Francisco, which elected a law-and-order district attorney backed by the city’s moderate mayor, London Breed, and two moderate supervisors, including one who beat a progressive incumbent for
his seat — not an easy task.
Just six months ago in San Francisco, voters recalled Chesa Boudin, a progressive former public defender who was at the vanguard of criminal justice reform when he was elected in 2019. If anything, the election of progressive Pamela Price as district attorney in Alameda County showed that the reform movement is hardly dead in the Bay Area.
And despite the wins for moderates in San Francisco, it isn’t clear that Alameda County is necessarily more progressive. Political experts and politicians say the election results are not black and white and they don’t agree on whether the outcomes point to progressive or moderate waves. While some say Oakland has long been a haven for progressive ideals, the incredibly close outcomes in the city’s mayoral race and the county’s district attorney contest may actually reflect who ran a better campaign.
Other data points to the idea that San Francisco is actually more progressive than Alameda County. Overall San Francisco tends to vote slightly more progressive than Alameda County on statewide ballot measures. For example, 79.2% of San Franciscans voted in favor of Prop. 28, which sets aside funding for arts and music in public schools, whereas 74.3% in Alameda County voted in favor of it.
Some voters in Alameda County appeared to shift away from the law-and-order candidates, but political experts said the election outcomes were close and ranged from progressive to moderate winners across the board — making it challenging to pin down a trend.
“Oakland has always been a place that rewards people who are fundamentally progressive and maybe have some moderate streaks,” said Tommy Clifford, a political strategist who previously worked on the campaign of Nancy O’Malley, the county’s former, moderate D.A., who didn’t run for re-election.
“A progressive tidal wave in Oakland and Alameda County? I don’t know if that’s exactly it,” he added.
Voters in Oakland chose Sheng Thao, a progressive candidate, for mayor by fewer than 700 votes. Two new council members — one replacing Thao and another replacing Thao’s opponent, Loren Taylor, a moderate council member — won their elections by an overwhelming majority of the vote. Both are progressives. A third Oakland council member and incumbent, who is also progressive, won re-election over a lawand-order candidate.
Janani Ramachandran beat a law-and-order candidate, supported by Mayor Libby Schaaf, to replace Thao in a district known for residents who vote frequently. But those same voters also favored Nick Resnick, a moderate, for the school board.
Countywide, Price, a civil rights attorney and criminal justice reform advocate, won the district attorney’s seat, making history as the first Black person to hold the office. But Rebecca Kaplan, a progressive candidate for the county supervisor seat that represents part of Oakland, San Leandro and the city of Alameda, lost to the moderate candidate.
While some residents may vote based on which candidate is more moderate or progressive, most voters are up for grabs and often tend to pick candidates based on who resonated with them more, said Noah Finneburgh, a political strategist who worked on Thao’s campaign and Joel Engardio’s supervisorial campaign in San Francisco. Engardio was a moderate candidate who beat a progressive incumbent.
“Individual candidates matter a lot and their stories matter,” Finneburgh said.
He noted that while Thao ran as a progressive candidate, part of her campaign strategy focused on her as a “bridge builder.”
“We pitched her as somebody who had progressive values but above all was committed to bringing people together and who was effective and I think that’s one of the reasons she won,” Finneburgh said.
Ranked-choice voting also came into play for the mayor’s race. Allyssa Victory, a progressive grassroots candidate, came in fourth place and most of her votes went to Thao. Ignacio De La Fuente, who received nearly $1 million in independent expenditure money from coal supporters, came in third place, but more than 6,000 of his overall 16,527 votes were exhausted, meaning voters only selected him and didn’t include a second-choice vote. That’s more than the number of votes for Victory that were exhausted at just over 3,000.
“The campaign for Ignacio de la Fuente cost Loren Taylor the election,” said Jim Ross, a political consultant who didn’t work on any of the mayoral campaigns, but supported Thao.
Clifford said the results also relied on the support the candidates were able to secure.
“Sheng (Thao) locked down a lot of support early and that counts,” Clifford said.
Thao secured major endorsements from the city’s labor unions, the Alameda County Democratic Party, the Sierra Club and other high-profile organizations. Taylor secured endorsements from Schaaf, Breed and other Northern California mayors.
But Thao’s endorsements translated into nearly $1 million in support from independent expenditure groups.
Taylor failed to get major financial support from independent expenditure groups, which can fund more mailers and digital advertisements that can have a big impact in a race with little name recognition, Clifford said.
That level of independent expenditure support was missing in the district attorney’s race. Neither candidate secured major financial support.
Doug Linney, a political strategist and the president of the East Bay Municipal Utility District board, said Price’s win came down to her name recognition. Price had previously run against Nancy O’Malley, the current district attorney, and ran for mayor of Oakland in 2018.
“She ran a better campaign,” Linney said. “Wiley didn’t do a single piece of mail, for instance.”
Linney worked on the campaign for moderate Lena Tam, who beat Kaplan in the race for the county supervisor seat.
He said their campaign focused on crime as a big concern, which likely resonated with voters.
Maggie Muir, a political consultant who worked campaigns for San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins and San Francisco Supervisor Matt Dorsey, said most voters in Alameda County didn’t know who Wiley was.
“The San Francisco D.A.’s race was a little bit different,” said Muir, who is an Oakland resident. “It was so high profile because of the Chesa recall. There was more attention on the candidates. Over here in Alameda County, it’s still kind of a sleepy race. I’m not sure most people could tell you who their D.A. was.”
But not everyone agrees. Oakland Council Member Carroll Fife, a progressive leader, said the county’s election outcome shows that voters want to steer away from the status quo.
“Oakland is who Oakland has been, which is a very progressive, visionary town,” Fife said.
“We keep doing the same things over and over and keep getting the same results, so I think people recognize this as a transition from the status quo,” she added.