How S.F., L.A. stack up on COVID cases
As COVID-19 cases rise across the state, how does the situation in the Bay Area compare to that of Los Angeles?
Case rates in San Francisco, Los Angeles County and the wider Bay Area are all on the rise, but, so far, Los Angeles is faring worse. As of Dec. 6, the giant Southern California jurisdiction reported a seven-day average rate of 34 new cases per 100,000 people, while San Francisco’s came in lower at just under 27 and the Bay Area’s rang in at 27.4.
San Francisco and Los Angeles are showing similar test positivity numbers, however — a telling indication of the prevalence of coronavirus in the community. In San Francisco, 11.1% of tests are currently coming back positive, according to state data, while Los Angeles’s rate is a bit higher at 11.5%. The statewide average is 11.7%.
Though infections are rising sharply in San Francisco, experts continue to caution that case rate data from laboratory tests no longer captures the full scale of cases because a majority of people now use home test kits, with results not reported to county or state public health authorities. That’s why sampling for the presence of virus DNA in effluent can provide a more accurate view of community spread. And there the numbers are skyrocketing in the Bay Area and even more so in Los Angeles.
Hospitalizations are also rising in both regions. So far, Los Angeles is being hit a bit harder than the Bay Area, with about 13 COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents. San Francisco isn’t far behind, with 12.2 hospitalizations per 100,000 people, while the Bay Area average is 9.4.
In both San Francisco and Los Angeles, deaths from the virus are still very low — both had death rates below 0.1 deaths per 100,000 people as of the end of November. Death rates tend to lag behind case numbers and hospitalizations, so the impact can be hard to discern until after a surge. But widespread vaccination, prior COVID infections and improved treatments are resulting in far lower mortality than during the scary first years of the pandemic.
The latest figures fit a longstanding pattern. Los Angeles has consistently been hit harder during COVID-19 surges than the Bay Area. The Southern California county is the most populous in the nation, with more than 10 million residents, compared with the Bay Area’s roughly 7.8 million and San Francisco’s 875,000.
Los Angeles is also extraordinarily diverse and home to more vulnerable populations than the Bay Area, with many residents working in essential jobs and living in crowded conditions.
The Bay Area has also outpaced Los Angeles in vaccinations and boosters. According to state data, all nine Bay Area counties have higher rates of eligible residents who have gotten a booster shot. While just under 60% of Los Angeles residents have gotten a booster, 77.6% of San Francisco residents have.
Thought rates for uptake of the new bivalent booster are relatively low across the board, all nine Bay Area counties outstrip Los Angeles in that regard as well — 16.7% of Angelenos have gotten the bivalent shot, while 31% of San Franciscans have. The statewide average is 18.3%.
Los Angeles officials warned last week that if its case and hospitalization numbers continued to worsen, the county might bring back a mandatory mask mandate. But the Los Angeles Times reported Thursday that the county’s Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer was hopeful such a measure could be avoided.
In July, Los Angeles said it would reimpose mask mandates if its COVID-19 numbers continued to worsen. The day before the mandate was set to begin, the county backed off, citing improved metrics.
In the Bay Area, renewed blanket mandates remain unlikely, though selective settings still require face coverings. Officials across the region — as well as at the state and federal levels — are choosing instead to strongly recommend maskwearing and booster shots as cases continue to climb.