No end yet to cold and rain
Lack of high-pressure systems allows storms to hit state
Storm-lashed California may not get much relief soon: The cold and rain could be here to stay for at least the next two weeks, according to weather experts.
The weather for Northern California for March 8 through March 14 leans toward colder and rainier (or snowier) conditions than usual, per an outlook issued Tuesday from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center — though mid-range forecasts are notoriously finicky.
How much precipitation the state could receive will become clearer next week, said Bay Area weather service meteorologist Brooke Bingaman.
“Above normal, that can be like a 100th of an inch above average, or it could be a couple of inches. So, it doesn’t tell you how much above or below normal things will be, it just is highlighting a signal,” Bingaman said.
The spate of storms in the forecast are the result of a series of cold low-pressure systems, Bingaman said. Air rises with a low-pressure system, allowing clouds to “continue growing and intensifying,” Bingaman said.
“This conveyor belt of low pressures (is) trying to pass through our area, and those always bring rain chances with them,” said Bay Area weather service meteorologist Brayden Murdock.
In contrast, air sinks towards the surface of the earth in a high-pressure system, “squishing the cloud and not allowing it to develop,” Bingaman said.
Sometimes, high-pressure systems set up along the West Coast, blocking storms that come in across the Pacific Northwest.
Right now, the storm door is open — meaning there is no high-pressure system off the coast blocking storms, Bingaman said.
“That means any storms that are coming across the Pacific Ocean can enter our area,” Bingaman said.
The Bay Area saw a break in the rain Wednesday, but wet weather will return Friday night into Saturday morning, according to a Wednesday forecast from San Francisco Chronicle meteorologist Gerry Diaz.
Light rain will continue Monday and into Tuesday, Bingaman said. There will be a break towards the middle of next week, though lingering showers could continue in the North Bay, Bingaman said.
Through the middle of next week, there’s forecast to be about an inch of rain in the North Bay and less than an inch of rain from San Francisco down to Monterey Bay, Murdock said.
Past the middle of next week, forecasts are split on rain chances, Murdock said. One model suggests a high-pressure system could build back up; another is opposing that, Murdock said. On balance, however, more precipitation is the likeliest outcome, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
There is moderate risk for heavy precipitation in the Central Valley and coastal regions from March 8 to 10, according to the Climate Prediction Center. There is also moderate risk for heavy snow in the Klamath Mountains and the Sierra Nevada on those same days, the center said.
It’s unclear what the last few weeks of March looks like, though the Climate Prediction Center reported that the likeliest outcome is that the entire month is colder and rainier than usual in the state.
The Sierra Nevada region has seen heavy snowfall over the last week, with multiple feet of snow over a two-day stretch in some areas.
The outlook for more heavy snow “is increasingly daunting” in terms of potential impacts, UCLA-affiliated climate scientist Daniel Swain tweeted Wednesday morning. Sierra dwellers have already experienced difficult roads, power or heat outages, avalanches and collapsing roofs, he said — so more snow could bring more problems.