Swift sets a record, but indie theaters feel a little ‘Bad Blood’
Taylor Swift’s message to the box office resonated loud and clear this weekend: “You Belong With Me.”
As expected, the nearly three-hour-long “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” concert film dominated cinemas in record-breaking fashion. Industry estimates on Sunday, Oct. 15, peg the domestic opening weekend haul, which began with a spontaneously announced Thursday premiere, at around $93.3 million.
In stark contrast, the No. 2 film at the box office was “The Exorcist: Believer” ($11 million), followed by “PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie” ($7 million) and “Saw X” ($5.6 million).
Still, that means the film version of Swift’s scheduled 146-show, five-continent live tour — that kicked off in March, stopped by Levi’s Stadium in July and runs through November 2024 — has already surpassed “Justin Bieber: Never Say Never,” which earned $73 million during its entire run in 2011, as the highest-grossing concert film of all time.
And judging by ticket presales for the film’s second weekend in theaters that begins Thursday, Oct. 19 (the film does not play Mondays through Wednesdays), “The Eras Tour” has a chance to double its money.
It also finished as the second-biggest October opener in box-office history behind the comic book live-action drama “Joker,” which pulled in $96 million on its opening weekend in 2019.
This is a great result for a concert film that was only announced six weeks before it opened, bypassed traditional advertising beyond a few social media posts by Swift, and was the product of a unique distribution arrangement by AMC Theatres.
“Her spectacular performance delighted fans, who dressed up and danced through the film,” AMC Theatres’ executive vice president of worldwide programming and chief content officer Elizabeth Frank said in a statement. “With tremendous recommendations and fans buying tickets to see this concert film several times, we anticipate ‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’ concert film playing to big audiences for weeks to come.”
Yet, indications are that it could have been so much more.
When “The Eras Tour” film was first announced, some pundits predicted it could surpass the $155 million opening weekend of Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie.” Although AMC is its official distributor, the movie is playing in many non-AMC theaters, including Regal and Cinemark cinemas and several independent movie houses in the Bay Area, a fact that was not as well advertised. AMC venues accounted for 41% of the market share during opening weekend, with 95 of the top-grossing 100 theaters in the United States.
Movie theaters in general are struggling as crowds are slow to return to pre-pandemic levels, and independent theaters have been especially hard hit. Some Bay Area theater owners note that while “The Eras Tour” is doing OK numbers at their venues, it has only partially realized hopes that its late entry onto the fall schedule would help offset the loss of “Dune: Part Two,” which moved to March 2024 because of Hollywood’s labor disputes.
“I was disappointed,” said Allen Michaan, owner of the Grand Lake Theatre in Oakland. “It was a good weekend for us, but was nothing really special. … The crowds were not huge as all of the focus on this release was slanted in a way that made moviegoers think that it was only an AMC event.”
Michaan reserved his biggest auditorium, which seats 600, for the film, but rarely drew crowds that approached even half that. He estimated attendance for three shows Friday to be a combined 300, and 186 for Saturday’s four shows — though he noted
moviegoers were certainly enthusiastic (“People were dancing!”).
Like other theater owners, Michaan is contractually obligated to screen the film for four weekends. He’ll move “The Eras Tour” to a smaller screen next weekend to make way for Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
Independent theater owner Frank Lee, who operates the Marina and Presidio theaters in the Marina District, said “The Eras Tour” averaged half-full crowds at his 250-seat Marina Theatre. Lee noted the crowds could have been bigger, because when theaters were notified that the movie would be available to them, AMC — where the film was a blockbuster — already had sold more than $100 million in advance tickets.
But Lee preferred to look at the bright side. “The Eras Tour” is his theater’s biggest hit since “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.”
“Considering all the other stuff out there that’s not doing much, yes, it’s doing well,” Lee said. “A little more than half per show, which is pretty good for 20 bucks a shot.”
The $19.89 ticket — in honor of the forthcoming “1989 (Taylor’s Version)”; it’s $13.13 price for children and seniors, a nod to her favorite number — is indeed steeper than the average ticket price.
But here’s a suggestion to Swift — who dictated to not screen the film on Mondays, Tuesdays or Wednesdays to ensure higher per-screen audiences — if she’d like to increase that box-office take: “Begin Again.”
Since the marketing push has been largely fueled by her Instagram posts (she has 274 million followers and counting). how about a post extolling the virtues of seeking out independent movie theaters?
It’s doubtful AMC would mind; it gets a distribution fee no matter where it plays. And Swift still gets 57% of the take.
Indies need Swifties.