Overconfidence unlikely to be pitfall that brings an early end to postseason
Streaking Packers squad presents too tough of a challenge for team to overlook
The San Francisco 49ers host the Green Bay Packers in a divisional-round playoff game Saturday. The Niners had a bye last week and many of their top players didn’t suit up for the regular-season finale against the Rams the week before. We asked our writers to assess that layoff, whether a new NFC QB rivalry is beginning and what the outcome of the game will be.
The Cowboys and Eagles were considered all season to be among the dominant NFC teams, and they’ve been eliminated. With the 49ers back in action after a lengthy break, is overconfidence a cause for concern?
Eric Branch: My strong hunch is the 49ers are hungry, not cocky. Yes, the path to the Super Bowl doesn’t look treacherous — Packers, Lions(?), oh my — but this is a team that’s recently lost a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead in the Super Bowl, a 10point, fourth-quarter lead in the NFC Championship Game and then added to its excruciating recent postseason history in last year’s conference-title game. Yes, the 49ers were feeling themselves after their 5-0 start. But it would be stunning if those feelings resurfaced when they are three wins from an elusive NFL title.
Ann Killion: The 49ers seemed to have succumbed to overconfidence earlier this season. Despite all precautions, the “best team in football” talk leaked into their locker room in early October after their dismantling of Dallas, and they veered off course for a time. But I don’t think it will happen now, not with their ultimate mission just three victories away. It helps that the 49ers got to watch what happened to an overconfident home team that took the Packers lightly. Like clockwork, the Cowboys imploded in January. I don’t expect the 49ers to follow the broken Dallas timeline.
Michael Silver: Though they are better than the Packers, the 49ers won’t be overconfident. But if you’re asking whether S.F. should be grouped into the same category as the Cowboys and
Eagles? Uh, no. The 49ers broke the Eagles on Dec. 3 in Philly and things degenerated from there; the Eagles were the worst team in the playoffs, by far. Kyle Shanahan and his coaches saw the Packers’ victory over Dallas coming, too. The Cowboys, 42-10 losers at Levi’s this season, are (to borrow from the late Denny Green) who we thought they were. This doesn’t mean the 49ers are impervious to the possibility of a bad game against Green Bay, but if they lose, it won’t be because they took the Packers lightly.
What’s the matchup within this game that you think will be especially important?
Branch: Defensive tackle Arik Armstead against the Packers’ interior line. The 49ers want to stop the run. Big surprise, right? Every team says it. Every. Single. Week. But the 49ers really, really, really want to stop the run. And the return of Armstead from a five-game absence greatly improves their chances of doing so. Pass rusher Nick Bosa said the success of Green Bay running back Aaron Jones (four straight 100-yard games) has
slowed pass rushers and given QB Jordan Love clear passing lanes: “I don’t think many teams have made him uncomfortable yet. So stopping the run and covering up those wide-open guys is something we have to do.”
Killion: First of all, 49ers fans better hope it’s not Jake Moody versus a slippery ball. The best matchup could be Kyle Shanahan versus Matt LaFleur. Though Shanahan has had LaFleur’s number in their previous two playoff meetings, this is a more LaFleur-controlled offense, as opposed to being completely Aaron Rodgers-centric. The Rodgers problem now belongs to the Jets and ESPN; LaFleur can run an offense that’s more similar to what he took from Shanahan. Against the Cowboys, the Packers won the toss and — contrary to what most coaches do and defer — LaFleur chose to start with the ball. That’s because he knew the Cowboys are front-runners. I can think of another team that’s at its best playing from ahead.
Silver: Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ defensive linemen against the Packers’ offensive line. Bosa, a perfectionist who is particularly hard on himself, told me he’s expecting a big game from the S.F. D-line on Saturday. The Packers did a great job of neutralizing Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ other potent pass rushers; Bosa and friends will have to find a way to penetrate this underrated unit. The key for Green Bay was establishing the run, which set up play-action passes that afforded Jordan Love more time in the pocket, and the opportunity to exploit man-toman coverage. If the Niners can keep Green Bay from gashing them on the ground, they’ll have a much better chance of getting to Love.
Brock Purdy vs. Jordan Love, is this the start of a great new NFL QB duel to excite schedule-makers, network execs and fans?
Branch: Probably? But I’ve already crowned Purdy (Congrats, Brock!) and have yet to give Love my official stamp of approval. (Sorry, kid.) In midNovember, Love was a supposed bust struggling to lead a 3-6 team, meaning it will take more than nine games of unconscious play to convince me he’s for real. But maybe not too much more. If he beats the top-seeded 49ers on the road in the playoffs? We have a great new QB duel!
Killion: That would be fun. The NFC has languished for too long without many up-andcoming quarterbacks. The AFC has seemed to have a monopoly on great young passers in recent years, and that conference, too, has an outstanding newcomer in C.J. Stroud. We’ll see whether Saturday’s game is the beginning of a lasting rivalry, but both franchises have to feel pretty pleased with how their decisionmaking at the game’s most important position is unfolding.
Silver: Maybe. The Purdy part is settled — he’s going to be an elite quarterback for years to come. Love has shown a lot of promise, especially during this nine-game stretch in which he has thrown 21 touchdown passes and only one interception. He’s probably here to stay — and, with Matt LaFleur’s coaching, capable of elevating further. That said, a bad playoff game — and a rough start in 2024 amid heightened expectations — could change things in a hurry. Sunday was a stellar playoff debut, but Love still has plenty to prove against the Niners.
Predictions: Do the 49ers return to the NFC Championship Game, or will the Packers send them packing?
Branch: It’s hard to dismiss any team with a scorching-hot QB. But not that hard in this case. The Packers will be playing on a short week after a dizzying Green Bay-to-Dallas-to Green Bay-to-Santa Clara travel itinerary, and the 49ers’ star players (and there are a lot) have barely had to break a sweat since New Year’s Eve. Oh, also, the Packers’ defense is nothing special. And the 49ers’ offense is a freight train. 49ers 35, Packers 17. Killion: For the 49ers, this season has been about one thing: making it to — and winning — the Super Bowl. For the Packers, this season has been about a reset after Aaron Rodgers, trying to make it to the playoffs, trying to rebound from a disappointing season. So there’s one team in this divisional matchup with a ton of pressure and another one that is relatively pressure-free. But the 49ers have superior talent, they’re fresh and they should be ready. 49ers 35, Packers 24.
Silver: Don’t let the seedings fool you. The Packers, after a 2-5 start, have been one of the league’s best teams since the start of November, with victories over the Rams, Lions, Chiefs and Cowboys during that stretch. This is a real team — young and fearless; well rounded and well coached; improving by the week — and Green Bay absolutely has a chance to win this game. The 49ers, like all top seeds coming off a layoff, could start pressing if they fall behind early. Green Bay is a dangerous first opponent. With all of that said, the 49ers — rested and relatively healthy — are the class of the NFC, and possibly all of football. 49ers 31, Packers 23.