Overstimulated? Stocks soar 75% in historic 12-month run
It was one year ago that the terrifying free fall for the stock market suddenly ended, ushering in one of its greatest runs.
On March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 fell 2.9%. In all, the index dropped nearly 34% in about a month, wiping out three years’ worth of gains for the market.
That turned out to be the bottom, even though the coronavirus pandemic worsened in the ensuing months and the economy sank deeper into recession. Massive amounts of support for the economy from the Federal Reserve and Congress limited how far stocks would fall. The market recovered all its losses by August.
As time passed, the quick development of coronavirus vaccines helped stocks shoot even higher. So did growing legions of firsttime investors, who suddenly had plenty of time to get into the market using free trading apps on their phones.
It all led to a roughly 75% surge for the S&P 500 over the last 12 months and a shocking return to record heights. This run looks to be one of, if not the, best 365-day stretches for the S&P 500 since before World War II. Based on month-end figures, the last time the S&P 500 rose this much in a 12-month stretch was in 1936, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
All the furious movement has also raised worries that stock prices may have gone too far, too fast. Here’s a look at some trends that helped shape the market over the last year:
Two bull markets in one
Wall Street’s big rally actually had two distinct stages. Early on, Big Tech stocks and winners of the suddenly stay-at-home economy pulled the market higher. Amazon benefited as people shopped more online, Apple hoovered up sales as more people worked from home and Zoom Video Communications surged as students and adults started meeting online. Tech stocks as a group are the market’s biggest by value, so their gains helped make up for weakness across other sectors as the economy continued to struggle.
Since last autumn, though, excitement for an economic liftoff has caused a more widespread upturn. Banks, energy producers and smaller companies whose profits would be the biggest beneficiaries of a stronger economy have led the way, as coronavirus vaccines roll out and Washington delivers even more financial aid. Those gains are also picking up the slack for technology stocks, which have lost momentum as interest rates rise on worries about higher inflation.
First-time investors join
Stuck at home with little to do, people looked for ways to use some dollars that might have otherwise been spent on a movie, restaurant meal or vacation. Many turned to the stock market via their phones, as trading apps made it easy to buy and sell shares with a few taps, commission free.
Clients under the age of 40 accounted for 35% of trading last month at Charles Schwab, nearly double the rate of two years earlier. Accounts less than a year old are doing more trading in total at Charles Schwab than accounts that have been around more than 10 years.