Piffle on preseason poll’s perfidy: Lobos are better
Never mind the men behind the curtain.
Preseason polls are usually the worst barometers to gauge the success of a team. So, when you see The University of New Mexico settling into fifth place in the Mountain Division according to Mountain West Conference media members, just shrug it off. Remember last year’s team? The Lobos were slotted fifth last July as well.
They finished tied for the division title (missing out on the conference title game because of tiebreakers), went 9-4 and won a bowl game for the first time in eight years. Suffice it to say, those are the real expectations for this program.
The upward trend of the football program over the past two years has been remarkable. It’s almost like the Mike Locksley years didn’t happen (note to UNM: please refrain from hiring football coaches named Mike. Sheppard and Locksley went a combined 12-81 in their Lobos career).
At some point, the trend will plateau or go into a decline, and that just might happen this season. Still, the difference going into this year versus the past two seasons is that people expect the Lobos to win. It’s a great feeling.
But it’s also a double-edged sword. Nobody wants to be a part of the team that ends a good thing, even if it’s just temporary.
Yes, UNM has an offense that is the envy of most programs — that includes those pass-happy spread attacks. Yeah, quarterback Lamar Jordan throws the ball with the accuracy of Tim Tebow, but he operates a running attack that is second to none.
Expect the Lobos to be one of the top running games in the country — they averaged an NCAA-best 350 rushing yards per game in 2016 — and they will be explosive (48 runs of at least 20 yards was also tops in the country). It doesn’t matter that leading rusher Teriyon Gipson graduated. This is a plug-and-play system.
So, insert Tyrone Owens, Richard McQuarley and Daryl Chestnut, and just keep the option rolling. Passing game, shmassing game.
Of course, we are in the age of the spread, and that puts the onus on defenses. That’s where the Lobos’ biggest weakness remains.
As great as UNM runs the ball, it can’t see to slow down passing games. A five-week stretch last year made that painfully apparent. When Air Force can throw for 280 yards, you have problems. The good news is that the defense — and the pass defense, in particular — improved significantly. Even when Colorado State hammered the Lobos late in the season, the Rams ran all over the defense.
But we’re talking about last year. Graduation and attrition do funny things to programs. What worked one year flickers out the next. The personnel in some packages just do not jell as well, and that leaves coaching staffs to adapt.
Much like programs have to adapt to changing expectations.
Ignore the talking heads who still see UNM as a fly-by-night operation.
Expect better. Surely, the Lobos are.