Trump vows to be tough on nukes at summit

China may hold the cards for negotiations with North Korea

DANDONG, China — Along the Chinese border with North Korea, the evidence of Beijing’s leverage in the coming talks between President Donald Trump and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, is everywhere.

Footage of China’s president, Xi Jinping, hosting Kim this week plays in a loop on a big outdoor screen here in the city of Dandong, and residents are eager for cross-border trade to resume as sanctions on North Korea are eased. Traders say they are putting in advance orders for coal from North Korean suppliers. Some exporters are already smuggling goods across the border.

“If you bribe the customs officials twice as much as before,” said one businessman, “some of the smaller equipment goes through.”

The Trump administration insists it will maintain its campaign of “maximum pressure” on the North until Kim has shown “substantial dismantlement” of his nuclear arsenal. But the buoyant mood in Dandong is a reminder that China, as North Korea’s main trade partner, can decide how strictly to enforce the international sanctions against it.

Beijing has already positioned itself as a critical player that can shape the outcome of the talks, which Trump said will take place June 12 in Singapore. The reclusive Kim has traveled twice in the past two months to China to consult with Xi, notably in each case just before hosting a visit by Mike Pompeo, the new U.S. secretary of state.

The message both times was clear: Kim wants China’s support for his approach to nuclear disarmament — a gradual, actionfor-action process in which the North is rewarded for each move it takes toward denuclearization.

Even as Trump is celebrating North Korea’s release of three U.S. prisoners, China has many reasons to believe it will come out ahead in the coming talks.

For one thing, its leverage over sanctions enforcement means its view on the main issues — the method and pace of denuclearization — will carry weight with both North Korea and the United States.

While he has emphasized the importance of moving quickly, President Moon Jae-in of South Korea has also endorsed an “action-for-action” approach to denuclearization, putting his position closer to that of China and North Korea than of the United States. The joint declaration issued after his summit meeting with Kim last month set no deadline for denuclearization, suggesting the diplomatic momentum is already shifting toward a phased approach.

This could make it easier for the North to reject demands to discard its weapons quickly, forcing Trump to choose between accepting a more gradual process or going home empty-handed.

If Trump cannot get the big breakthrough he wants in denuclearization, he may try instead to negotiate a treaty to establish diplomatic relations with the North and formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, which was halted by an armistice.

Trump has shown great enthusiasm for signing an official peace treaty with North Korea, a gesture that he has said would be good for everyone.

However, such an outcome might also play into China’s hands by calling into question the need for the 30,000 U.S. troops now stationed in South Korea and the annual joint military exercises that involve even more U.S. forces, which are intended to serve as a deterrent against the heavily armed North.

“An agreement with North Korea which reduced tension, while clearly welcome in itself, could well mark the beginning of the end for America’s longstanding preponderance in Asia,” White said. “And that would be a big win for China.”