Dems strengthen House prospects
WASHINGTON — Democrats enhanced their prospects for winning control of the House in Tuesday’s coast-tocoast primaries, skirting potential calamity in California and lining up likely gains in New Jersey and possible victories in Iowa and New Mexico.
The Democratic Party had feared disaster in California, where a quirky “jungle primary” gives the November ballot to the top two finishers in the primary, regardless of party. But Democratic contenders were able to leverage financial and strategic help from the national party to weather the winnowing primary, and ensure that they will field candidates in multiple California House districts that they will most likely need to win control in November.
“Even though Democrats had to spend a few million dollars, crisis averted,” said Nathan Gonzales, a veteran House race handicapper and the editor of the Inside Elections newsletter.
Republicans avoided their own worst-case scenario as well, securing a spot in the California governor’s race, which should help bring Republican voters to the polls this fall to vote for Republican House candidates. Republican voters also chose strong candidates in Southern California for the showdown in November.
The Democrats had more on the line, and more to celebrate. Between California and New Jersey, Democrats will contend for at least 10 Republican-held seats, nearly half of the 23 they need for control.
Republicans saw some positive developments Tuesday as well. In the California governor’s race, John Cox, a Republican, secured a spot on the ballot to face Gavin Newsom, the Democratic lieutenant governor.
In an early-morning tweet Wednesday, Trump embraced Cox.
“Great night for Republicans! Congratulations to John Cox on a really big number in California. He can win,” Trump tweeted. “So much for the big Blue Wave, it may be a big Red Wave. Working hard!”
Democratic strategists in Washington deserve some credit for their efforts to knock down the biggest threats in California.
In some instances, they picked Democratic candidates who were not supported by Emily’s List, the political action committee that backs women who support abortion rights.
National Democrats also pumped in money to help beat a second-tier Republican, clearing the field for Democrats to fight it out for second place.
“Democrats have to be happy and relieved,” said Dave Wasserman, House race analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.