Dems all have something at risk in Detroit debates
The second Democratic presidential debates will take place in just more than a week, this time in Detroit. After what transpired in Miami, almost every candidate has something to prove.
CNN, which will host the two nights of debate, found a system to assure relative balance between upper and lower-tier candidates on each night. That will create opportunities and dynamics on both nights that will differ in important ways from the two nights in Miami.
Among the candidates in the upper tier of the polls, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., will join eight other candidates July 30, while former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris of California will join the eight remaining qualifiers July 31.
For Harris and Biden, who clashed in Miami, this represents a rematch. Warren and Sanders, the two leading progressives in the contest for the Democratic nomination, share many ideas in common but this will mark the first time they shared a debate stage.
Much of the attention is focused on what these two pairings will produce, substantively, stylistically and politically.
For many of those 16 candidates, the stakes are especially high, in part because some of them might not meet the current rules for qualifying for the September debate in Houston.
Biden needs to bounce back after Miami. Not only was he hit hard by Harris over his opposition to mandatory school busing in the 1970s and his comments about working with segregationist senators decades ago, his overall performance lacked spark, crispness and energy.
Biden can expect more criticism in Detroit. It could come from Harris, but it could just as easily come from Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey. Booker told the Post’s Robert Costa during an interview before a live audience last week that the 1994 crime bill that Biden helped steer to passage was one of the worst pieces of legislation ever.
If the former vice president comes after Harris, on health care or the busing controversy, there will be an unavoidable second round. Given that she’s trying to argue that she is equipped to prosecute the case against President Donald Trump in 2020, Harris will have to demonstrate that she can counter effectively when attacked. A perpetuation of the Biden-Harris dynamic of Miami carries as many risks as rewards.
If Biden is set up for a rebound, much still depends on his ability to deliver. Biden continues to offer uneven performances on the campaign trail. As the person atop the state and national polls and as someone who has run for president twice, and as the person who ran two general elections as Barack Obama’s running mate, and as the candidate who claims to have the best chance of defeating Trump in 2020—expectations for Biden are higher.
Warren made the most of not having to share the stage in Miami with Biden, Sanders or Harris. Her discipline and her skill at delivering her own message were on display. She took advantage when she was in the spotlight and seemed content to stay out of other scrums.
She and Sanders are friends of many years and have similar perspectives, if sometimes different solutions about what they see as an economic and political system rigged against the middle class. Warren might decide to avoid engaging or deflect questions back to issues she wants to highlight. But will Sanders be content to do the same?
First-night friction almost certainly will come from others on the stage. Several candidates have moderate views they will want to contrast with Warren and Sanders.
One is former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, who has been outspoken about the leftward movement of the party and who knows he needs a spark for his candidacy. Former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland is another, given what he did in Miami. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota has cast herself as a resultsoriented politician who thinks the progressives are offering some unrealistic proposals. South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg is running close to the leading four in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, but nationally is further back. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas had a poor night in Miami, consistent with a disappointing run since he announced his candidacy. He is passionate on the campaign trail and continues to display skills as a retail candidate. But he has been on a downward trajectory.
The same can be said for Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana. He did not qualify for the Miami debate, so this will be his moment of introduction to most viewers. Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio, an advocate for economic policies aimed at working-class voters will also debate on the first night, as will author Marianne Williamson.
The second night will feature several candidates struggling to get attention, Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.
Bennet, a moderate, took on Biden in Miami. Gillibrand repeatedly and energetically sought to inject herself into the Miami debate, but with limited success. Inslee is the climate change candidate but didn’t make much of a mark in Miami.
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio stood out in Miami through his interruptions and by asserting his progressive credentials. But it hasn’t helped him much with Democratic voters.
Former Housing Secretary Julián Castro benefited from his exchange in Miami with O’Rourke over immigration. The debate helped raise his profile and some badly needed funding. In the first debate, Castro pushed the other candidates to embrace his plan to decriminalize the border. He’ll be asked to defend that idea and rebut the charge that it leaves Democrats open to the label of the “open borders” party. The second night also will include Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. CNN has sponsored many debates and the network’s style is to provoke the participants to clash with one another. Detroit could be even noisier and more contentious than Miami.