Iran standoffs test Trump’s resolve to use military force
WASHINGTON — By the time President Donald Trump met with congressional leaders on the afternoon of June 20, he had already decided to retaliate against Iran for shooting down a U.S. surveillance drone. But for once, he kept his cards close to the vest, soliciting advice rather than doing all of the talking.
“Why don’t you go after the launch sites?” a Republican lawmaker asked.
“Well,” Trump replied with a hint, “I think you’ll like the decision.”
But barely three hours later, Trump had changed his mind. Without consulting his vice president, secretary of state or national security adviser, he reversed himself and, with ships readying missiles and airplanes already in the skies, told the Pentagon to call off the airstrikes with only 10 minutes to go. When Vice President Mike Pence and other officials returned to the White House for what they expected would be a long night of monitoring a military operation, they were stunned to learn the attack was off.
That about-face, so typically impulsive, instinctive and removed from any process, proved a decision point for a president who has often threatened to “totally destroy” enemies but at the same time has promised to extricate the United States from Middle East wars. It revealed a commander in chief more cautious than critics have assumed, yet underscored the limited options in a confrontation he had set in motion.
Three months later, some of Trump’s own allies fear the failure to follow through was taken by Iran as a sign of weakness, emboldening it to attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia this month. Trump argues his decision was an expression of long-overdue restraint by a nation that has wasted too many lives and dollars overseas.
But he finds himself back where he was in June, wrestling with the consequences of using force and the consequences of avoiding it, except now Iran is accused of an even more brazen provocation, and the stakes seem even higher.
As Trump again weighs retaliation against Iran, this time for the Saudi attacks, the choice he made in June is instructive in the insight it provides into how the president approaches a life-ordeath decision committing U.S. forces against an enemy.
This account of that day in June is based on interviews with White House aides, Pentagon officials, military officers, American and foreign diplomats, members of Congress and outside presidential advisers, most of whom asked not to be identified describing private conversations.
As eager as he is to fight with 280 characters on Twitter, Trump has proved profoundly reluctant to fight with live ammunition on a real battlefield. “For all of those that say, ‘Oh, they should do it, it shows weakness,’ he said, “actually, in my opinion, it shows strength.”
Trump came to office fixated on Iran as an enemy to be confronted. In abandoning the nuclear agreement negotiated by President Barack Obama in 2015 on the grounds that it was a bad deal, Trump set himself on a collision course with Tehran that was bound to test him. Strained by the “maximum pressure” sanctions that Trump has imposed, Iran this summer acted out aggressively, targeting oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and vowing to reconstitute its nuclear program. The overnight downing of the Global Hawk drone in June seemed to climax a campaign of escalation that would draw in Trump.
Hours after the drone was destroyed, the president’s team met for breakfast at 7 a.m. in the office of John Bolton, then the national security adviser. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were joined by two acting secretaries of defense, Patrick Shanahan, who had just announced his resignation and was days away from departing, and Mark Esper, his designated replacement.
At the meeting, several strike options were discussed. The Pentagon’s preferred plan was to attack one of the missile-laden Iranian boats that the United States had been tracking in the Gulf of Oman. American forces would warn the Iranians to evacuate the vessel, videotape them doing so, then sink the boat with a bomb or missile strike.
The end result would be zero casualties, which Shanahan and Dunford argued would be a proportional response to the downing of a $130 million drone that had itself resulted in no loss of life.
Bolton and Pompeo were concerned that would not be decisive enough and pushed for strikes on Iranian soil. Bolton argued for what was described as a “comprehensive list” of targets, but only so many could be hit if the operation was to be carried out quickly, so the officials settled on three Iranian missile batteries and radars.
Four officials said that striking the three targets would result in about 150 casualties, a number derived from Iranian manning doctrine for these particular facilities, including operators, maintenance personnel and security guards.
How much Trump was paying attention to that part of the briefing or what he absorbed was not clear in hindsight to some officials. But they said the casualty estimates were included as part of the target package presented to the president.
The national security team emerged from that meeting convinced it had a decision from Trump to strike, and soon the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and other ships and aircraft were on the move, preparing for an attack around 9 p.m. Washington time, or just before dawn in the region.
Still, there continued to be pushback from Pentagon civilians and Dunford. They argued that killing as many as 150 Iranians did not equate to the shooting down of a drone and could prompt a counterstrike by Iran that would escalate into a broader confrontation.
Trump seemed to be nursing doubts of his own, partly because of reports that the Iranian commander who shot down the drone had acted on his own, not on specific orders of the national government. In the days leading up to this moment, Trump had talked with Tucker Carlson, the Fox News host, who reminded him that he had come to office to get out of endless wars, not start a new one. And beyond his own electoral prospects, Trump bristled at the idea of a wider war.
At 3 p.m., Trump convened a dozen congressional leaders from both parties in the Situation Room, a rare act of inclusion.
Trump seemed uncertain about what to do in response to the drone shootdown. Democrats suggested caution, warning that a military strike could destabilize the region and play into Iran’s hands. Trump, for once, did not reject their views
As the hour approached, Trump was given the estimate that 150 Iranians would be killed in the attack. The president later said publicly that it came when he asked his generals, but in fact, multiple officials said the estimate was delivered to him by a White House lawyer who got it from a Pentagon lawyer.
When the decision came, Pence, Pompeo and Bolton were all out of the White House, and the president did not call them for input. Instead, he told the Pentagon to call off the attack.