State GOP hopes Trump can staunch the bleeding
Science is not President Donald Trump’s strength, being that he worries about climate change only if a storm disrupts his round of golf.
He’s worse at geography. Trump just described Colorado as a gateway to Mexico. Only he could envision his giant border wall protecting the Broadmoor Hotel and Denver Mint.
Most academic subjects bore this president. Arithmetic is what he really cares about.
Trump, a Republican, believes he can win New Mexico next year, even if he can’t find it on a map. His reasoning is that he was in striking distance in the three-way race of 2016.
Democrat Hillary Clinton won the state with 48 percent of the vote. Trump received 40 percent, and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson took 9 percent. Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, was a Republican during his two terms as governor.
Trump looks at those statistics and assumes he would have carried New Mexico had Johnson not siphoned votes from him. Remove Johnson from the equation in 2020, and Trump sees the math working in his favor.
Is he dreaming?
In a word, yes.
A month of Sundays would have to fill the calendar for Trump to break through in a state where Republicans have turned themselves into a minor party.
New Mexico last year elected Democrats to every statewide office. And all five of the state’s congressional seats are now held by Democrats.
Republicans lost on merit. They ran patsies for most of these highprofile offices.
Janice Arnold-Jones couldn’t hold
the Albuquerque City Council seat she received through an appointment. But Republicans still made her their candidate in the 1st Congressional District. She lost in a blowout.
Showing remarkable consistency, Republicans put up other weaklings for the U.S. Senate, two other U.S. House seats and many state offices. Their replacement candidate for secretary of state had been trounced in a congressional primary.
Gubernatorial candidate Steve Pearce was the Republican Party’s big name and best hope in 2018. He lost by 14 percentage points — or 100,000 votes — in a race that had no incumbent.
Pearce, 72, is now chairman of the state Republican Party. He prattles at every opportunity about how Trump can carry New Mexico on the strength of Hispanic voters.
Hispanics aren’t monolithic in elections, which is why Pearce tried to repackage himself as a moderate when running for governor. Few bought his pitch.
Pearce should have waved a white flag one minute after the returns started coming in from Albuquerque and the rest of Bernalillo County.
He received only 38 percent of the vote in the state’s population center. Pearce did a bit better overall, but his poor showing in metro Albuquerque killed his slim chance of beating Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham.
The keys for Trump in New Mexico are not ethnic politics. They are Albuquerque and apathy.
For him to win, he has to stay close in the state’s biggest city and hope that turnout in other Democratic strongholds is lower than usual. His camp would welcome a blizzard in Santa Fe on Election Day.
A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t carried New Mexico since George W. Bush won it narrowly in 2004. The Albuquerque-based 1st District last sent a Republican to Congress in the 2006 election, also by a razor-thin margin. Now Republicans cede the congressional seat to Democrats.
Republican featherweights ran for other high offices last year. Mick Rich, their candidate in the three-way race for the U.S. Senate, parroted Trump anytime he saw a microphone.
Rich received 30.5 percent of the vote. Any Republican with a heartbeat would have done as well. After that defeat, Rich is back for another campaign in the 2020 U.S. Senate election.
Trump doesn’t need New Mexico to win another term. The electoral college and his success in the Midwest give him reason for optimism.
He defeated Clinton in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa — states that Democratic President Barack Obama won twice. Trump also took Florida, an even bigger prize in the electoral college, and another state Obama carried twice.
Pearce, leading a state party on a losing streak, needs to talk up Trump all he can. And Trump welcomes the chatter.
New Mexico is a long shot for him, but selling himself in the swing states won’t be as easy the second time around.
Ringside Seat is an opinion column about people, politics and news. Contact Milan Simonich at msimonich@sfnewmexican.com or 505-986-3080.