Postseason crystallizes for Santa Fe teams
Santa Fe High, Capital boys have good shot at playoffs; girls more of a long shot
Pairings for the state basketball tournament come out in less than two weeks.
Inside of three weeks from now, champions in 10 brackets will be crowned and the entire — albeit disturbingly short — COVID-19 prep hoops season will be over.
As fans already know, this year’s playoff format is drastically altered because of the coronavirus pandemic. The 12-game cap for the regular season leaves most teams playing a schedule of mostly district opponents, many of whom will play fewer than the maximum number allowed.
District tournaments have been eliminated and the state tournament brackets have been cut in half, dropping from 16 teams in each class to eight. Regular season district champions get automatic state bids, and with as many as seven districts in each class, there’s virtually no room for error for those missing out on first.
Here’s what Santa Fe-area teams are facing as we enter the homestretch:
Boys Class 5A
Santa Fe High and Capital both control their own destinies, and both have a good chance of making the playoffs. Both have huge games Wednesday — the Demons can put the hammer down in District 5-5A with a win at Los Lunas, while Capital begins a critical three-game/eight-day stretch with a trip to Albuquerque High.
The Demons (6-2 overall, 5-1 in district) would complete a sweep of Los Lunas with a win Wednesday, a scenario that would leave only Capital (assuming the Jags win at
Albuquerque High) within striking distance. What’s more, Santa Fe High could easily pin down a high seed by seizing the momentum of the 5-5A crown.
With six automatic bids locked up, just three at-large spots are available. One of those will likely go to the 1-5A runner-up (either top-ranked Cleveland or No. 4 Atrisco Heritage). That leaves two spots for the other four districts, a scenario that puts a premium on running the table for Capital.
Boys Class 4A
There are five districts at this level, and one of the at-large bids is a lock for District 6-4A with Bernalillo and Del Norte riding high. A strong candidate for another appears to be 2-4A with Española Valley, Taos and Los Alamos in a three-way fistfight that will leave at least one of them at home when brackets are announced May 1.
The volatility of the season is expressed perfectly with Taos. Ranked No. 1 last week after an unbeaten start through five games, the Tigers lost at home to Española and, two nights later, lost on the road at Los Alamos. Just like that they went from state title contenders to the playoff ICU.
They slipped seven spots to No. 8 this week, one spot behind an underrated Española Valley (5-3) squad whose strength of schedule is off the charts with losses to Santa Fe High, Clovis and Cleveland.
One team not in the mix? Hope Christian. The 16-time state champs started 1-6 and are out of the picture.
Boys Class 3A
Undefeated Robertson is well on its way to a No. 1 overall seed and, despite some worry that may exist in the City Different, the runner-up from 2-3A seems to be safe for an at-large bid.
Exactly who that might be will be answered Wednesday when St. Michael’s (4-2) visits West Las Vegas (5-3) in what amounts to a game for second place.
Props to Santa Fe Prep, a solid team that has held its own in that top-heavy district, but it has too many L’s to be part of the playoff discussion.
Boys Class 2A
The picture really boils down to one district and three teams. The 6-2A race has the state’s top two teams (Texico and Pecos) and a third (Santa Rosa) that’s solidly in the mix. If Pecos is to win a fifth straight championship May 8, its road to getting there goes through a Saturday visit to Santa Rosa and an April 29 home date with Texico.
Regardless of how the Panthers fare in the district, it seems they’re a solid bet to get one of the state’s two at-large spots — assuming, of course, they do no worse than splitting the aforementioned games.
For Monte del Sol, it all rides on the two games against 2-2A rival Estancia. Split those and the Dragons are in as good a shape as they can possibly be. Anything less — like, say, a loss anywhere along the line in the district — and it could be costly.
Boys Class 1A
Don’t worry about it. Every Santa Fe-area team except Coronado is taking the season off, but the Leopards have to get through Evangel Christian to get to state.
Girls Class 5A
The playoff view is coming into focus, but it doesn’t appear likely that either city team will make it. Capital is sitting in third place, but each of the Jaguars’ losses in District 5-5A are by a combined 66 points to front-runners Los Lunas and Albuquerque High.
It’s going to take a win against at least one of them to have any shot of bubble consideration. We’ll know more when Capital host the Bulldogs on Wednesday night.
Santa Fe High has four district games left and nothing short of 4-0 will help. Even that might not be enough, as the Demons are off to a 1-3 start and in desperate need of some positive momentum.
Girls Class 4A
All eyes are on Española Valley. Off to a 7-1 start with an average margin of victory in District 2-4A of 47.5 points, the Sundevils are steamrolling their way toward a state tournament bracket that, on paper, is as balanced as any in the land.
Of course, they’ll have to deal with the likes of Highland, Gallup, Portales and Kirtland Central once they get there. Don’t expect anyone else from this area to make it into the postseason.
Girls Class 3A
Robertson is back to its old tricks, as is West Las Vegas. The intracity rivals are ranked 3-4 in this week’s coaches’ poll and if anyone is capable of cracking their code it’s St. Michael’s.
The Lady Horsemen are home Wednesday against Robertson and play their final two games of the regular season against the Vegas schools. It’s a simple as this: The playoffs are now for St. Michael’s and it’s wise to treat every game from here on out as an elimination situation.
Girls Class 2A
Four area teams could crack the eight playoff spots, led by unbeaten and top-ranked Pecos. The Panthers won it all in 2019 and are the overwhelming favorite to do so again next month, but the looming reality is there isn’t much wiggle room for not winning district. In that respect, looking at you, Mora and Peñasco.
The two are laboring behind Escalante in District 5-2A. With strong cases to be made for at-large bids out of the southwest’s 3-2A and for either Pecos or Clayton in 6-2A, someone is going to be very unhappy on May 1.
Not so for Academy for Technology and the Classics. Unbeaten through seven games, the Phoenix are running away with 3-2A.
Girls Class 1A
Same story as the boys’ small-school level, except Coronado’s path on the girls’ side is even tougher.